Statistical analysis of the failure times and feed rates of downhole pumping equipment in operating parameter ranges

UDK: 622.276.5
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-2-46-49
Key words: electrical submersible pump (ESP) units, sucker-rod pump units, failure time, pumping rate, statistical data analysis, operating parameter range
Authors: E.O. Timashev (Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, RF, Ufa), R.S. Khalfin (Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, RF, Ufa; RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa), M.G. Volkov (RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa)

The transition to the late stages of development at a significant number of large oil fields, as well as the need to develop hard-to-recover reserves, made necessitate the search for the optimal method of oil production. At the same time, despite the large number of works in this direction, the problems of the scientific and methodological substantiation for the choice of the optimal method of artificial lift remain relevant. Earlier, the author proposed criteria for assessing the operating efficiency of downhole pumping equipment and the success criteria for the application of new methods of artificial lift, as well as regression equations for determining the ranges of inefficient operation of sucker rod pump (SRP) units and electric submersible pump (ESP) units. At the same time, the classification of statistical data was made with assumptions about the independence and homogeneity of samples for the ranges of operating parameters. As a result of the conducted research, these assumptions were confirmed, as well as the stability of statistical conclusions when changing the boundaries of the ranges of operational parameters of downhole pumping equipment.

It has been established that for lowering depths of more than 1500 m low failure times, and the low values of flow coefficient for pumping rate is under 20 m3/day for the considered oil company are characteristic. These ranges correspond to the suboptimal range of operating parameters SRP and ESP. The combination of the optimal ranges method, taking into account economic efficiency, and statistical methods will allow to improve the existing methods of analysis of field data for their implementation in software products of monitoring and management of the wells.

The following statistical methods were used in the research: exploratory data analysis, Student test, Mann – Whitney test, single-factor analysis of variance, multiple linear regression analysis, generalized regression models, Kendall rank correlation, Spearman rank correlation, gamma rank correlation, permutation test.

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