The problem of forecasting areas of increased fractures deals with exploration, drilling and development of hydrocarbon fields, since fractures largely determine the filtration-capacity properties of the reservoir. Core studies are used as direct methods for assessing fracturing, and geophysical and hydrodynamic well studies are used as indirect methods. The relevance of the development of fracture prediction technology is determined by the fact that direct methods of research and well testing do not allow identification of fracturing in the interwell space and in the entire area of research. The article considers the technology of fracture prediction based on the geomechanical method. This technology has been successfully tested at several fields in Russia. It is based on the assumption that fracture localization is determined by the strain field using a computational parameter – fracture intensity, which is expressed through the volume and shear strain invariants. The computational characteristic allows constructing a cube of fracture intensity and determines the preferential direction of fracture spreading. To use the proposed approach, 3D seismic data and data on mechanical properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio), density and Bio-coefficient of rocks are required. Using fracture localization technology, fracture intensity maps were constructed for two fields in Russia. A good correlation of the calculated characteristic of fracture intensity and productivity index was obtained.
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