The article examines the main events of the last decade affecting the global development of the world economy and energy, as a result of which significant changes have taken place and ideas about the prospects, rates and proportions of the development of world energy, about the role of certain primary energy carriers in the future energy supply of mankind. It is shown that in most of the forecasts considered, it is emphasized that the two crises of recent years – Ukrainian and energy – lead to the need for downward revision of forecasts of global GDP and energy demand, since the rapid rise in prices for them directly or indirectly affected all countries of the world. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the works of the world's leading analytical and predictive centers, in which their authors try to assess the role of the Russian oil industry in a fundamentally changed world over the past two years. Their analysis shows that there is currently no clear idea of the consequences for the Russian oil industry of the events of 2022-2023. It is shown that the most complete estimates of these events are present in the work of the IEA WEO-2022, which is analyzed in the article in the most detail. The IEA experts are confident that the long-term prospects of the Russian oil and gas complex will be weakened by both uncertainty about demand and limited access to international capital and technology, so Russian exports of fossil fuels will never return to the levels observed in 2021. Accordingly, Russia's share in international trade in oil and gas will significantly decrease by 2030. At the same time, the IEA recognizes that, despite the sanctions already in place and the reduction of Russian exports to the EU, the total volumes of Russian oil production and exports have not significantly decreased so far. BP experts come to similar conclusions, noting that formal and informal sanctions both on Russian oil imports and on the country's access to Western technologies and investments have the most significant impact on the possibilities of Russian oil production in the near future. However, experts of the OPEC Secretariat, based on the same conditions (the conflict over Ukraine, sanctions, embargoes, the withdrawal of a number of international oil companies with their technologies), see the prospects for oil production in Russia differently. It is concluded that, at least in the coming years, the volume of production and export of Russian oil will be determined not so much by the sanctions policy of "unfriendly states" as by the policy of OPEC+. Therefore, in the near future, we should expect further adjustments in the views of representatives of the world's leading analytical and predictive centers on the future of Russian oil.
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