Cost estimation of hydrocarbons resources and reserves

UDK: 338.45:622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2021-10-10-13
Key words: field development, express method for assessing oil reserves, economic risk assessment, geological and economic parameters, feasibility of developing oil deposits, wells drilling, optimal dynamics of oil production
Authors: Yu.G. Bogatkina (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow), V.N. Lyndin (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow), N.A. Eremin (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow)

The article is devoted to the issues of technical and economic assessment of resources and reserves of oil and gas fields. The modern geological and economic methodology for the classification of resources and reserves of natural hydrocarbons is considered. The new Russian classification makes it possible to distinguish: firstly, recoverable reserves, which include explored and studied categories, and secondly, resources, including undiscovered, prospective and forecast categories. It is assumed that the volume of hydrocarbon reserves that can be extracted from the subsoil during the period of field development should be determined on the basis of the presented express valuation methodology. The methodology allows making decisions on the introduction of oil reserves into commercial development. On the basis of the problem being solved, a risk assessment model is proposed to determine the efficiency of their extraction. The "triangular fuzzy number" of the most profitable recoverable reserves per one production well is used as an estimated indicator, as the main criterion for evaluation. The criterion is determined by calculation using the developed methodology and is estimated based on the deviation of the regulatory parameters: capital, operating costs and oil prices based on a hypothetical option. The technique is applicable at the early stages of prospecting and exploration of C1, C2 oil deposits in terms of their probabilistic characteristics, with an insufficient amount of information on geological and technological parameters. It allows you to economically evaluate oil reserves to determine the preliminary geological and economic feasibility (inexpediency) of resource development with the drilling of capital-intensive wells. The dependences of the change in the extremely profitable oil flow rates on the price level are presented, calculated for the most typical geological, technological and economic conditions for the development of productive formations in new fields of the Surgut arch. Dependencies can be recommended for practical decision-making on the feasibility of industrial development of the identified deposits at the current level of technology and production technology and current standards, taxes and prices. The developed methodology makes it possible to identify economically efficient development targets, to determine the optimal production dynamics and a strategy for the industrial development of oil fields.

References

1. Federal law of the Russian Federation of February 21, 1992 no. 2395-1 "About subsoil" (as amended on 08-12-2020). – https://normativ.kontur.ru/document?moduleId=1&documentId=395750

2. Order of Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia no. 228 of 04/11/19, "Ob utverzhdenii metodiki "Ekspress-otsenki zapasov uglevodorodnogo syr'ya" (On approval of the methodology "Express assessment of hydrocarbon reserves"), URL:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/554691573.

3. Strategiya razvitiya mineral'no-syr'evoy bazy Rossiyskoy Federatsii do 2030 goda (Development strategy of the mineral resource base of the Russian Federation until 2030), URL: http://www.rosnedra.gov.ru/article/8743.html

4. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S., Otsenka riskov neftegazovykh proektov (Risk assessment of oil and gas projects), Moscow: Publ. of IRTs Gazprom, 2007, 260 p.

5. Bogatkina Yu.G., Application of theory of fuzzy set in automated system of technical-economic estimation of oil and gas fields (In Russ.), Avtomatizatsiya, telemekhanizatsiya i svyaz' v neftyanoy promyshlennosti, 2010, no. 9, pp. 11–14.

6. Bogatkina Yu.G., Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov v neftegazovoy otrasli s ispol'zovaniem mekhanizmov avtomatizirovannogo modelirovaniya (Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects in the oil and gas industry using automated modeling mechanisms), Moscow: Maks Press Publ., 2020, 246 p.

7. Bogatkina Yu.G., Lyndin.V.N., Eremin N.A., Automated evaluation of economic indicators in oil and gas investment projects  (In Russ.), Neft', gaz i biznes, 2017, no. 6, pp. 37–40.

The article is devoted to the issues of technical and economic assessment of resources and reserves of oil and gas fields. The modern geological and economic methodology for the classification of resources and reserves of natural hydrocarbons is considered. The new Russian classification makes it possible to distinguish: firstly, recoverable reserves, which include explored and studied categories, and secondly, resources, including undiscovered, prospective and forecast categories. It is assumed that the volume of hydrocarbon reserves that can be extracted from the subsoil during the period of field development should be determined on the basis of the presented express valuation methodology. The methodology allows making decisions on the introduction of oil reserves into commercial development. On the basis of the problem being solved, a risk assessment model is proposed to determine the efficiency of their extraction. The "triangular fuzzy number" of the most profitable recoverable reserves per one production well is used as an estimated indicator, as the main criterion for evaluation. The criterion is determined by calculation using the developed methodology and is estimated based on the deviation of the regulatory parameters: capital, operating costs and oil prices based on a hypothetical option. The technique is applicable at the early stages of prospecting and exploration of C1, C2 oil deposits in terms of their probabilistic characteristics, with an insufficient amount of information on geological and technological parameters. It allows you to economically evaluate oil reserves to determine the preliminary geological and economic feasibility (inexpediency) of resource development with the drilling of capital-intensive wells. The dependences of the change in the extremely profitable oil flow rates on the price level are presented, calculated for the most typical geological, technological and economic conditions for the development of productive formations in new fields of the Surgut arch. Dependencies can be recommended for practical decision-making on the feasibility of industrial development of the identified deposits at the current level of technology and production technology and current standards, taxes and prices. The developed methodology makes it possible to identify economically efficient development targets, to determine the optimal production dynamics and a strategy for the industrial development of oil fields.

References

1. Federal law of the Russian Federation of February 21, 1992 no. 2395-1 "About subsoil" (as amended on 08-12-2020). – https://normativ.kontur.ru/document?moduleId=1&documentId=395750

2. Order of Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia no. 228 of 04/11/19, "Ob utverzhdenii metodiki "Ekspress-otsenki zapasov uglevodorodnogo syr'ya" (On approval of the methodology "Express assessment of hydrocarbon reserves"), URL:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/554691573.

3. Strategiya razvitiya mineral'no-syr'evoy bazy Rossiyskoy Federatsii do 2030 goda (Development strategy of the mineral resource base of the Russian Federation until 2030), URL: http://www.rosnedra.gov.ru/article/8743.html

4. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S., Otsenka riskov neftegazovykh proektov (Risk assessment of oil and gas projects), Moscow: Publ. of IRTs Gazprom, 2007, 260 p.

5. Bogatkina Yu.G., Application of theory of fuzzy set in automated system of technical-economic estimation of oil and gas fields (In Russ.), Avtomatizatsiya, telemekhanizatsiya i svyaz' v neftyanoy promyshlennosti, 2010, no. 9, pp. 11–14.

6. Bogatkina Yu.G., Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov v neftegazovoy otrasli s ispol'zovaniem mekhanizmov avtomatizirovannogo modelirovaniya (Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects in the oil and gas industry using automated modeling mechanisms), Moscow: Maks Press Publ., 2020, 246 p.

7. Bogatkina Yu.G., Lyndin.V.N., Eremin N.A., Automated evaluation of economic indicators in oil and gas investment projects  (In Russ.), Neft', gaz i biznes, 2017, no. 6, pp. 37–40.


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