The paper describes algorithms for predicting oil production rates based on Arps model whose parameters are estimated in terms of well production performance and the algorithm based on panel data models with a trend component described by Arps model. An algorithm for selection of input factors based on Bayesian neural networks has been proposed and implemented. An algorithm for construction of piecewise multiple regression models to estimate the Arps constant and to predict oil production rates based on application of Kohonen networks and structural change analysis approaches has been proposed and implemented. This method for prediction of oil production rate and production decline considers numerous factors that influence production performance. A module for prediction of oil production performance of project wells has been developed. The host application is written in Python 3.6 programming language. Computational algorithms of model building are implemented in R programming language. The authors describe the principle of operation of software module for forecasting oil production performance of project wells.
The described method has been field tested at production sites of Tatneft Company. Machine learning has been done using selected geological and production data from producing wells in Kynovian and Pashian reservoirs for a group of production areas of Romashkinskoye field. Machine learning enabled selection of project wells and estimation of production and economic performance. A comparative analysis of existing methods for prediction of input oil production rates and annual production decline rates of project wells for the selected group of areas has been performed. Resultant data suggest applicability of machine learning method for prediction of production performance of project wells in oil fields. This is particularly important for mature fields, which provide sufficient accumulated statistical data required to apply machine learning methods.
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