Forecasts of oil demand and consumption from leading global analytical centers

UDK: 622.276

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2026-4-6-12

Key words: forecasts, results and assessments, evolution of assessments, global economy and its oil sector, oil demand, International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), OPEC

Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of the RAS, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the forecasts and projections of three leading global analytical organizations: the OPEC Secretariat, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite the transformation of the energy landscape, the fragmentation of the global economy and the entire system of international relations, as well as geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of trade barriers, these organizations predict a steady increase in oil demand in 2026-2027, which will be largely driven by continued robust economic activity in the countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These countries will also contribute to the increase in demand, while demand in OECD countries will increase much less. The main drivers of the increase in oil demand in 2026-2027, as well as global economic growth, are the developing countries of Asia, led by China and India, and the continued economic growth in major developing economies. The key factors contributing to the global increase in oil demand are identified. The article also shows that during 2025 and the first two months of 2026, all three organizations have repeatedly revised their estimates of global oil demand for the current year and their forecast for 2026-2027. The analysis of these forecasts reveals that the estimates made by different agencies differ, although the differences are not significant. However, there are larger differences in regional estimates.

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