Russian arctic shelves are highly prospective areas for oil and gas development. Commonly quoted technically recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the northern seas amount to 100 billion tons of oil equivalent (BTOE).
Development of the arctic seas oil and gas resources is only at its initial stage, and the proved system of planning is required to make the development process safe, reliable and rational.
One of the important tasks of forecasting activities on the Russian shelves is a technological accessibility assessment of the areas, perspective for oil and gas, and forecast of the sequence of the developing fields. Such an estimate accompanies environmental and industrial safety support on offshore production facilities, which is one of the most pressing challenges of the arctic resources development.
Analysis of climate and environmental conditions together with technical requirements is the first and absolute necessary stage of the classification method development. Formulation of the evaluation methodology is the second, equally important stage. It should include most important parameters and reflect the quality of the database. Understanding of the complexity of the development conditions and their correct «translation» to the math language enable to recognize technologically accessibility of the arctic shelves and to forecast their development correctly.
Description and analysis of several available classification methods is given in the article together with our own classification concept, namely, clustering and ranking based on Fuzzy Logic principles. It is shown that the approach introduced by authors has few advantages, enabling execution of the technological accessibility assessment with better quality. Another advantage is that this approach allows to model scenario of regional development, based on sequential putting on production fields depending on complexity of their development.
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