E-mail: SVEletskiy@rosneft.com
Key words: hydrodynamic model, numerical methods, indirect error, assessment
of model.
A lot of model parameters (e.g. reserves, formation energy characteristics, production rates etc.) are set up with an error that relates to uncertainties of our knowledge regarding oil in place, inaccuracy of reservoir properties determination methods, determination of formation saturation, techniques of production rate measurement, human element etc. Within the classical theory of errors it is possible to determine the values of indirect mistake by means of known direct error. This work reviews only those aspects that relate to increase of solution uncertainty vs. time depending on known errors in model parameters setting. Having enough of representative production history, data uncertainty may also have an impact on solution uncertainties, regardless of correctness of reservoir simulation model history matching. In this case the increase of solution uncertainties doesn’t hinge on professional skills and responsibility of a reservoir simulation expert and is determined solely by data inaccuracy. Nevertheless, the issue of applicability of these models with proper history matching still remains relevant and crucial.
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