Quantitative risk and geo-technological success assessment of oil exploration project in Russia in 1992-2011 and util 2021

Authors: Glebov A.F.(International Group of Companies Soyuzneftegaz, RF, Moscow)
E-mail: GlebovAF@sng.msk.ru
Key words: : investment projects, oil exploration assets, probability of success
(POS), geological, technological, economic risks.
The method of quantitative evaluation of geological, technological and
economic risks is suggested. The data on 579 oil and gas exploration projects
of the distributed subsoil fund of three regions of the Russian Federation are
processed with its use. It is shown that, in spite of the virtually reached double
overstating of the existing resource base, the expected hydrocarbon stocks
addition in Russia until 2021 (on the assumption of realization of all investment
projects prepared for drilling) may amount 109% to actually achieved stocks
addition in 1992 - 2011.
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