Innovation projects valuation using options theory
Authors: M.M. Khasanov, E.Yu. Belkina, A.G. Zagurenko, T.R. Musabirov, V.Yu. Guk (Rosneft Oil Company OJSC)
It is noted, that the investment projects, related to the scientific research and new developments, are always realized in conditions of high uncertainty and inevitable risks. The use of the option theory is proposed for estimation the cost of research projects. An example of such an assessment, using the method of decision tree, is given. It is concluded, that the proposed method allows to exclude from consideration known unrealizable scenarios, but to take into account the cost of technological breakthroughs capabilities.
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