Prediction mean time between failures electrocentrifugal pumping units before descent in a hole and an estimation of its residual resource at operation

Authors: A.Atnagulov (RN-UfaNIPIneft LLC), I.Ishemguzhin (Ufa State Petroleum Technological University)
Before commissioning and during all period of work of the pumping outfit for oil production is necessary to predict its technical state  and to define a residual resource, with the purpose of planning of repair work and reduction of number of refusals. In this case it is possible to speak only about a probabilistic condition of pumping unit. For overestimate of a technical state of object recommended to use Bayes` theorem which will allow to consider the factors acting on concrete system and defining its technical condition.
Before commissioning and during all period of work of the pumping outfit for oil production is necessary to predict its technical state  and to define a residual resource, with the purpose of planning of repair work and reduction of number of refusals. In this case it is possible to speak only about a probabilistic condition of pumping unit. For overestimate of a technical state of object recommended to use Bayes` theorem which will allow to consider the factors acting on concrete system and defining its technical condition.


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