Assisted history matching of hydrodynamic models based on ensembles of geological models

UDK: 622.276.1/.4.001.57

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2026-7-102-106

Key words: hydrodynamic models, assisted history matching, optimization algorithms, ensemble of geological model

Authors: P.V. Glechikov (ZN STC LLC, RF, Moscow); A.V. Fomkin (Zarubezhneft JSC, RF, Moscow); A.N. Bagaev(ZN STC LLC, RF, Moscow); А.V. Andreev (RUSVIETPETRO JV LLC, RF, Moscow)

For field development scenarios hydrodynamic models acquired particular relevance, as they most fully include the entire set of available geological and geophysical data from the reservoir. In a standard history matching process based on a single geological model, achieving a good fit may lead to extreme, non-geological values of petrophysical properties in the near-wellbore areas. Input data for modeling are often determined with significant uncertainty and cover only a small fraction of the reservoir; thus, the use of a single history-matched model fails to account for these inherent uncertainties. All of this can significantly reduce the predictive capabilities of such models and increase the risks in development decision-making, particularly for under-explored reservoirs or greenfields. Methods for assisted history matching of hydrodynamic models based on ensembles of geological models are considered in the article. This method enables to include existing uncertainties of the initial geological and petrophysical data, and obtain a set of hydrodynamic models matched to the actual production data during optimization. The advantages of this approach in automation of the process and reduction of possible errors (extreme values of properties). The methods were developed and tested on a real field, considered various optimization approaches and algorithms. Based on the results, the quality and compliance with the adaptation criteria assessed.

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