Development of probabilistic-statistical models for assessing the petroleum source rocks potential in the Bashkir arch section of the Perm region

UDK: 550.4:551.2

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2026-6-12-17

Key words: Bashkirian arch, bituminological characteristics, dispersed organic matter (DOM), differentiation of DOM, epigenetic bitumoids, statistical analysis, probabilistic criterion Pepi, petroleum potential forecasting

Authors: V.L. Voevodkin (LUKOIL PJSC, RF, Moscow)

The study aims to identify additional criteria for petroleum potential on well-explored areas. The research focuses on the northern part of the Bashkir arch situated within the territory of the Perm region. Its primary goal is to develop probabilistic-statistical models for assessing the degree of transformation of organic matter and to forecast the distribution of epigenetic bitumoids in the Upper Devonian–Tournasian section. This was solved using the statistical analysis methods and the construction of probabilistic models based on the study of bituminological properties of dispersed organic matter (DOM) in rocks. Linear regression analyses led to the development of individual and integrated predictive probabilistic models which indicates that the most reliable models correspond to specific tectonic regions and stratigraphic formations. Further research was aimed at understanding how the DOM of the Upper Devonian–Tournasian sedimentary formation affect the probabilistic Pepi criterion, which is responsible for the presence of mobile epibitumoids. An examination of the derived multivariable regression equations revealed that the critical parameters influencing the Pepi prediction criterion are primarily determined by the magnitude of the bitumen coefficient and the non-soluble residue component. Applying linear discriminant analysis yielded robust, high-accuracy multidimensional models capable of discriminating epigenetic-type bitumoids prone to form hydrocarbon accumulations. The final schematic representation of the composite probabilistic Pepi criterion across the Bashkir arch highlights the spatial distribution of mobile epibitumoids within the Upper Devonian–Tournasian lithologic sequence, which is an additional zonal criterion of oil and gas potential for the Bashkir arch of the Perm region.

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