Northern sea route: present climate and future projections

UDK: 338.47(985)/338.24
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2024-6-40-44
Key words: Northern sea route (NSR), ice conditions, climate change, arctic shipping, ice class
Authors: A.N. Shishkin (Rosneft Oil Company, RF, Moscow), K.A. Kornishin (Arctic Research Centre LLC, RF, Moscow), I.D. Deinego (Arctic Research Centre LLC, RF, Moscow), P.A. Tarasov (Arctic Research Centre LLC, RF, Moscow)

The article provides an overview of current projects in seas of the Russian Arctic. Rosneft Oil Company is an active participant in the exploration and development of the Arctic shelf of Russia, also considering the Northern sea route as a strategic transport corridor. Since 2012, Rosneft has been conducting expeditions to study ice and metocean conditions in its license areas here. The article presents coverage of environmental studies conducted by Rosneft Oil Company at its license areas in the Arctic Seas, which resulted in the collection one of the world's largest database on ice and metocean conditions in the Arctic seas. The obtained observational data are used in applied research and targeted innovation projects. As an example, the authors present the results of long-term climate forecasts of ice conditions in terms of parameters that can affect navigation along the Northern sea route up to 2050. Analysis of the calculation results shows the following changes in metocean and ice conditions along the Northern sea route in comparison with the present averages (2011–2022) over the next 30 years: a) increase in the ice-free period by 1,5–2 months (and more – in the south-western part of the Kara Sea); b) increase of about ~3 оС in the mean annual temperature; c) disappearance of drifting ice along the route in summer, retreat of its edge to the present minimum; d) increase in the area and longer existence of the observed polynyas. The given data can be used in further research on technical and economic issues of the study and forecasting of shipping and other economic activities along the Northern sea route.

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