Spatial modeling of production well connectivity

UDK: 622.276.34
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2023-10-51-55
Key words: well productivity, mutual influence of wells, spatial panel models, spatial autocorrelation of well production
Authors: M.М. Khasanov (Gazprom Neft PJSC, RF, Saint Petersburg), R.R. Bakhitov (Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, RF, Ufa), I.A. Lakman (Ufa University of Science and Technology, RF, Ufa), V.M. Timiryanova (Ufa University of Science and Technology, RF, Ufa)

Exact production capacity is a bottleneck that limits the distribution of oil fields, especially in the context of unresolved existing problems and newly created wells. The difficulty in obtaining such estimates lies in the uncertainty of reservoir conditions, including the nature of the mutual influence of wells. The purpose of the study is to analyze reservoir connectivity based on the results of assessing the mutual influence of wells in dynamics. The empirical basis for the modeling was daily data on fluid production, in-situ and bottomhole pressure for 82 production wells of one field over time from January 1997 to October 1999. The analysis included assessing the spatial autocorrelation of the daily fluid flow rate of production wells using the Moran's index and constructing a spatial panel model with spatial and lagged components with fixed effects. The choice of model specification was based on the Baltagi – Song – Koch and Hausman tests. Calculations showed the presence of a positive spatial autoregressive relationship between the average fluid production of a well and the production of neighboring wells, which is more pronounced at 750 m rather than 1000 m. The constructed model showed a negative spatial relationship between well productivity, in the presence of factors not taken into account in the model, which have a positive spatial impact on neighboring wells under the influence of in-situ and bottomhole pressure. The authors concluded that spatial models based on panel data are suitable for forecasting and can account for both spatial and temporal variability in the productivity of nearby wells.


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