Enhancing the value of developing hard-to-recover reserves through project management and tax regulation

The paper investigates mechanisms for enhancing the development value of oil and gas fields with hard-to-recover reserves (HRR) under conditions of rapid growth in their share of Russia's resource base: according to Rosnedra, HRR account for approximately 52 % of the country's total oil reserves, with their production share increasing from 7,2 % in 2017 to 32 % in 2024; the Russian Ministry of Energy projects this share to exceed 80 % by 2030. The study integrates Value Management theory; Stage-Gate (Front-End Loading) standards and the AACE International cost estimate classification system. The scientific novelty comprises three contributions: extending the classic Total Project Value formula with a ΔNPVtechnology learning component that captures the value of the learning curve, critical for long-cycle HRR projects; developing a Stage-Gate with Excess Profits Tax (EPT) synergy model in which each decision gate is interpreted as an exercise point of a compound real option, with EPT parameters defining the profitability boundary; benchmarking Russia's EPT against Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, and the United States to identify directions for improving the domestic fiscal architecture. It is established that the cumulative effect of technological, organizational, and fiscal factors enables the transition of HRR projects from marginal to sustainably profitable without increasing project risks. Aggregate EPT revenues for 2019–2025 exceeded RUB 7,9 trillion RUB.

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