Global energy consumption forecasting for the medium and long term perspective

UDK: 622.276:620.9
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2022-8-30-34
Key words: energy resources, energy consumption, world economy, forecasting, modeling, fossil fuel, renewable energy sources
Authors: V.G. Martynov (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), V.V. Bessel (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow; NewTech Services LLC, RF, Moscow), A.S. Lopatin (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), R.D. Mingaleeva (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The development of the global economy is determined by the sustainable energy supply. An analysis of the economics of the G20 countries, whose cumulative share in the global economy is ~73%, shows that the vast majority of the world's leading economics at the current stage of technological development provide economic growth due to increased energy consumption. The steady growth of global energy consumption of recent decades, associated with the growth of the global economy, changes of technological structures and increase of the level of energy comfort, requires the implementation of all known fuel and energy sources, such as fossil fuel, which currently accounts for more than 84% of global energy consumption, nuclear and hydropower, to the balance of energy consumption and the constant search and implementation of innovative, highly energy effective and environmentally friendly energy sources to the energy balance. The energy infrastructure created over the past one and half century in the world is mainly focused on thermal energy, which is based on the principle of converting water into steam. However, given the fact that the development and modernization of the infrastructure for the production, distribution and consumption of new types of energy will require significant financial and time expenditures, the problem of energy consumption forecasting for the medium and long term perspective is not only a theoretical but also a practical task. The results of the construction of various scenarios for the global energy development with different forecasts of the world's population changes have shown good convergence with the results of forecasts of the world's leading energy companies and analytical agencies. The main thing is that according to all forecasts, we will have an increase in global energy consumption in the coming decades, which can be achieved only by using all currently known energy and fuel sources, including organic and promising highly efficient and environmentally friendly energy sources.

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