Multivariate calculation of oil production from the Bazhenov formation based on test well data and comparison with similar formations

The article presents an algorithm for calculating the production profile of an oil well drilled in the Bazhenov formation. In the situation under consideration, direct production profile calculation is complicated due to the following reasons: firstly, there is a lack of long-term historical production that can be used to adjust a production decline curve; secondly, the formation lithology, represented by a subreservoir with permeability less 10-5 μm2, makes calculations based on conventional hydrodynamic simulators highly volatile and unreliable; thirdly, there is a significant difference in the drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies that were used in the test well and those planned for the further implementation. The calculation presented in this article is based on a short-term production forecast in Kappa software, which subsequently was adjusted for changes in well completion technology and production extrapolation over the entire development period. Data from analogous formations of Russian and American shale oil fields were used for the adjustment. To improve the reliability of the assessment, multiple calculations were performed based on a combination of metrics from the tested well and data from analogous reservoirs. The obtained results were grouped according to the assessment of reliability and, after averaging, were used to form production profiles, conventionally called optimistic, base and pessimistic.

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