Current trends in global energy sector development with the use of hybrid technologies in energy supply systems

UDK: 330.524:620.9
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-3-31-35
Key words: hydrocarbon production, hydrocarbon reserves, reserves-to-production ratio, hybrid systems, renewable energy sources, energy supply
Authors: V.V. Bessel (NewTech Services LLC, RF, Moscow), (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), V.G. Kutcherov (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow; Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, Stockholm), A.S. Lopatin (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), V.G. Martynov (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), R.D. Mingaleeva (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The article presents the modern trends in development of global energy sector. It is shown that in ХХ-ХХI centuries the growth rate of energy consumption outpaces the growth rate of the Earth's population, which, in turn, is constantly increasing.  The analysis of energy consumption structure dynamics for the period of 1980-2018 shows the leading rates of growth of a share of natural gas and renewable energy in the world energy consumption balance, associated with energy efficiency and huge gas resources, inexhaustible renewable energy resources and low level of environmentally harmful emissions when using these types of energy. The analysis of the tendency of the mineral-raw material base of hydrocarbon raw materials development shows that the growth of oil reserves is provided, basically, by the high-viscosity bituminous oil of the Orinoco river belt in Venezuela and Athabasca province in Canada, and natural gas in four countries - Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar. The trend of change in the hydrocarbon reserves availability index is estimated; currently it is equal to 53 years and tends to decline further. Based on the analysis of the fossil fuels share used in centralized electricity generation the conclusion was made about low efficiency of thermal energy. It is shown that in the medium and long term the world energy sector will be developed with the use of hybrid energy technologies that will significantly improve the energy supply efficiency and reliability especially in regions with undeveloped energy infrastructure. Substantial redistribution of energy load from thermal energy to energy generation based on hybrid technologies will make it possible to use hydrocarbons not as fuel but as raw materials for innovative products of oil and gas chemistry. Thermal energy based on the combustion of fossil fuels and the use of nuclear energy will dominate in the global energy mix, but its share will gradually decrease. In the medium term, the share of natural gas in the global energy balance will continue to increase with a renewable energy sources growing contribution to the energy supply that will be developed as hybrid technologies.

References

1. BP statistical review of world energy, June 2018, URL: http://www.bp.com/statistical review/

2. URL: https://countrymeters.info/ru/World#historical_population

3. URL: https://www.gazprom.ru/f/posts/01/851439/gazprom-annual-report-2018-ru.pdf

4. Mitchell J., Marcel V., Mitchell B., What next for the oil and gas industry? London: Chatham House, 2012, 128 r.

5. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Natural gas is the basis of high environmental friendliness of modern world energy (In Russ.), Ekologicheskiy vestnik Rossii, 2014, no. 9, pp. 10–16.

6. Postuglevodorodnaya ekonomika: voprosy perekhoda (Post-hydrocarbon economy: transition issues): edited by Telegina E.A., Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2017, 406 p.

7. Kutcherov V.G., Krayushkin V.A., Deep-seated abiogenic origin of petroleum: from geological assessment to physical theory, Reviews of Geophysics, 2010, V. 48, no. 1,  DOI:10.1029/2008RG000270.

8. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Martynov V.G., The paradigm shift in the global energy market (In Russ.), Gazovaya promyshlennost' = GAS Industry of Russia, 2017, V. 751, no. 4, pp. 28–33.

9. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Martynov V.G., Energoeffektivnost' toplivno-energeticheskogo kompleksa Rossii (Energy efficiency of Russia's fuel and energy complex), Proceedings of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2015, no. 2, pp. 13–26.

10. Bujak J., Optimal control of energy losses in multi-boiler steam system, Energy, 2009, V. 34, no. 9, pp. 1260–1270.

11. Kutcherov V.G., Bessel V.V., Lopatin A.S., The paradigm shift in the global energy market: domination of natural gas, Proceedings of 17th international multidisciplinary scientific geoconference SGEM 2017: conference proceedings, 2017, V. 17, pp. 813–820.

12. Choi Y. et al., Review of renewable energy technologies utilized in the oil and gas industry, International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, 2017, no. 7(2), pp. 592–598.

13. Halabi M.A., Qattan A.A., Otaibi A.A., Application of solar energy in the oil industry. Current status and future prospects, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, V. 43, pp. 296–314.

14. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S. et al., Energy efficiency and reliability increase for remote and autonomous objects energy supply of Russian oil and gas complex (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2018, no. 9, pp. 144–147.

15. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S. et al., Efficiency of using autonomous combined low and medium power plants on renewable energy sources (In Russ.), Gazovaya promyshlennost' = GAS Industry of Russia, 2016, V. 737–738, no. 5–6, pp. 87–92.

The article presents the modern trends in development of global energy sector. It is shown that in ХХ-ХХI centuries the growth rate of energy consumption outpaces the growth rate of the Earth's population, which, in turn, is constantly increasing.  The analysis of energy consumption structure dynamics for the period of 1980-2018 shows the leading rates of growth of a share of natural gas and renewable energy in the world energy consumption balance, associated with energy efficiency and huge gas resources, inexhaustible renewable energy resources and low level of environmentally harmful emissions when using these types of energy. The analysis of the tendency of the mineral-raw material base of hydrocarbon raw materials development shows that the growth of oil reserves is provided, basically, by the high-viscosity bituminous oil of the Orinoco river belt in Venezuela and Athabasca province in Canada, and natural gas in four countries - Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar. The trend of change in the hydrocarbon reserves availability index is estimated; currently it is equal to 53 years and tends to decline further. Based on the analysis of the fossil fuels share used in centralized electricity generation the conclusion was made about low efficiency of thermal energy. It is shown that in the medium and long term the world energy sector will be developed with the use of hybrid energy technologies that will significantly improve the energy supply efficiency and reliability especially in regions with undeveloped energy infrastructure. Substantial redistribution of energy load from thermal energy to energy generation based on hybrid technologies will make it possible to use hydrocarbons not as fuel but as raw materials for innovative products of oil and gas chemistry. Thermal energy based on the combustion of fossil fuels and the use of nuclear energy will dominate in the global energy mix, but its share will gradually decrease. In the medium term, the share of natural gas in the global energy balance will continue to increase with a renewable energy sources growing contribution to the energy supply that will be developed as hybrid technologies.

References

1. BP statistical review of world energy, June 2018, URL: http://www.bp.com/statistical review/

2. URL: https://countrymeters.info/ru/World#historical_population

3. URL: https://www.gazprom.ru/f/posts/01/851439/gazprom-annual-report-2018-ru.pdf

4. Mitchell J., Marcel V., Mitchell B., What next for the oil and gas industry? London: Chatham House, 2012, 128 r.

5. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Natural gas is the basis of high environmental friendliness of modern world energy (In Russ.), Ekologicheskiy vestnik Rossii, 2014, no. 9, pp. 10–16.

6. Postuglevodorodnaya ekonomika: voprosy perekhoda (Post-hydrocarbon economy: transition issues): edited by Telegina E.A., Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2017, 406 p.

7. Kutcherov V.G., Krayushkin V.A., Deep-seated abiogenic origin of petroleum: from geological assessment to physical theory, Reviews of Geophysics, 2010, V. 48, no. 1,  DOI:10.1029/2008RG000270.

8. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Martynov V.G., The paradigm shift in the global energy market (In Russ.), Gazovaya promyshlennost' = GAS Industry of Russia, 2017, V. 751, no. 4, pp. 28–33.

9. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S., Martynov V.G., Energoeffektivnost' toplivno-energeticheskogo kompleksa Rossii (Energy efficiency of Russia's fuel and energy complex), Proceedings of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2015, no. 2, pp. 13–26.

10. Bujak J., Optimal control of energy losses in multi-boiler steam system, Energy, 2009, V. 34, no. 9, pp. 1260–1270.

11. Kutcherov V.G., Bessel V.V., Lopatin A.S., The paradigm shift in the global energy market: domination of natural gas, Proceedings of 17th international multidisciplinary scientific geoconference SGEM 2017: conference proceedings, 2017, V. 17, pp. 813–820.

12. Choi Y. et al., Review of renewable energy technologies utilized in the oil and gas industry, International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, 2017, no. 7(2), pp. 592–598.

13. Halabi M.A., Qattan A.A., Otaibi A.A., Application of solar energy in the oil industry. Current status and future prospects, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, V. 43, pp. 296–314.

14. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S. et al., Energy efficiency and reliability increase for remote and autonomous objects energy supply of Russian oil and gas complex (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2018, no. 9, pp. 144–147.

15. Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G., Lopatin A.S. et al., Efficiency of using autonomous combined low and medium power plants on renewable energy sources (In Russ.), Gazovaya promyshlennost' = GAS Industry of Russia, 2016, V. 737–738, no. 5–6, pp. 87–92.
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