Planning geological prospecting occurs in terms of high uncertainty, i.e. lack and inaccuracy of information about the object of research. Concerning the geological exploration process is very risky, and it is necessary to estimate risks and systematically manage them. The key tool for decreasing geological uncertainties and managing risks is the compilation of a rational complex of prospecting works. Gazpromneft NTC LLC developed a new approach to the compilation of a rational complex of prospecting works. It is based on the probabilistic estimation of reserves, production profiles and economic indicators, as well as the calculation of the value of information (VOI).
As the result of this approach application the decision tree was built based on the value of information from the implementation of geological prospecting activities. The application of the approach provides to compile rational complex of geological prospecting activities at the early stages of appraisal as quick and efficient as possible, to assess the prospects and economic attractiveness of the project.
The approach was successfully applied in the Zapadno-Zimnya area, located in the Kondinsky district of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District. This area is characterized by a low degree of study. Its main prospects are associated with terrestrial and coastal-marine Jurassic deposits and clinoform deposits of the Cretaceous complex.
References
1. Trushkova L.Ya., Igoshkin V.P., Khafizov F.Z., Klinoformy neokoma – unikal’nyy tip neftegazonosnykh rezervuarov Zapadnoy Sibiri (Clinoform of the Neocomian - a unique type of oil and gas reservoirs in Western Siberia), St. Petersburg: Renome Publ., 2011.
2. Atlas “Geologiya i neftegazonosnost’ Khanty-Mansiyskogo avtonomnogo okruga” (Geology and oil and gas bearing of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug): Khanty-Mansiysk: Publ. of V.I. Shpielman Scientific and Analytical Center of Rational Subsurface Management AU, 2004, 149 p.
3. Rubtsov E.V., Dymochkina M.G., Obosnovanie veroyatnosti geologicheskogo uspekha (Substantiation of the probability of geological success), Collected papers ”Metodika otsenki novykh aktivov razvedki i dobychi uglevodorodov” (Methodology for assessing new exploration and production assets of hydrocarbons), St. Petersburg, Publ. of Gazpromneft'-NTC, 2016.
4. Sizykh A.V., Vashevnik A.M., Goncharov A.S. et al., Estimating efficiency of exploration program based on value of information approach (In Russ.), PRO Neft', 2016, no. 1, pp. 46-52.
