Application of logical-probabilistic approach to the ranking of trunk pipeline sections for repairs optimization

UDK: 622.691.4
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-8-124-129
Key words: logical-probabilistic approach, ranking, pipeline section, trunk pipeline, technical condition; failure; industrial safety; corrosion of metal pipes; deduction tree
Authors: Ya. M. Fridlyand (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow), A.M. Korolyonok (Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University), RF, Moscow)

We have considered several strategies for the organization of work to maintain technical condition of trunk pipelines and ensure their reliability: recovery strategy, condition monitored maintenance strategy and the strategy to manage technical condition taking into account possible damages.

In current conditions of limited technical, financial and economic resources, which are necessary to ensure reliable and safe operation of the main pipelines, the most sound strategy should be based on managing of the technical condition, taking into account possible damages, which requires the development of mechanisms for the optimal planning of control actions. Assessment of the technical condition of a pipeline is carried out within the framework of a specialized package of engineering and technical works, which includes acquisition, processing and analysis of a set of heterogeneous data. The model for managing the technical condition of trunk pipelines is based on forecasting, taking into account the differential assessment of the risks of failures on various pipeline sections. Methodical approaches to the planning and implementation of maintenance and repair of main pipelines with the application of a logic-probabilistic approach to ranking pipeline sections are presented.

Assessment of trunk pipeline condition on the basis of risk criteria has shown the exceptional importance of categorization of possible conditions of trunk pipeline sections. The authors have analyzed the most common causes of trunk pipeline failures: corrosion, mechanical damage to pipelines with external interference and failures due to construction defects. The results of the analysis of the causes of typical failures of aging piping systems show that in terms of criticality the most important failures are failures due to corrosion of metal pipes. An example of a description of a logical inference tree is given when analyzing the possibility of corrosion of metal pipes.

References

1. Lisin Yu.V., Neganov D.A., Varshitskiy V.M., Justified choice of repeated test interval as a guarantee of faultless pipeline operation (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2017, no. 3, pp. 32–40.

2. Khafizov A.R., Nazarova M.N., Tsenev A.N., Tsenev N.K., On the role of construction and metallurgic defects in destruction failure of main pipelines (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2017, no. 3, pp. 24–31.

3. Mazur I.I., Ivantsov O.M., Bezopasnost' truboprovodnykh sistem (Safety of pipeline systems), Moscow: Elima Publ., 2004, 1097 p.

4. Makhutov N.A., Prochnost' i bezopasnost': fundamental'nye i prikladnye issledovaniya (Strength and safety: fundamental and applied research), Novosibirsk: Nauka Publ., 2008, 528 p.

5. Makhutov N.A., Lisin Yu.V., Gadenin M.M. et al., Safety of oil products pipelines by risk criteria (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2012, no. 3, pp. 10–16.

6. Kozlitin A.M., Teoriya i metody analiza riska slozhnykh tekhnicheskikh sistem (Theory and methods of risk analysis of complex technical systems), Saratov: Publ. of Saratov State Technical University (SGTU), 2009, 200 p.

7. Kozlitin P.A., Kozlitin A.M., Teoreticheskie osnovy i metody sistemnogo analiza promyshlennoy bezopasnosti ob"ektov teploenergetiki s uchetom riska (Theoretical bases and methods of system analysis of industrial safety of heat power facilities taking into account the risk), Saratov: Publ. of Saratov State Technical University, 2009, 156 p.

8. Samarskiy A.A., Mikhaylov A.P., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie: idei, metody, primery (Mathematical modeling: ideas, methods, examples), Moscow: Fizmatlit Publ., 2002, 320 p.

9. Zarubin B.C., Krishchenko A.P., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v tekhnike (Mathematical modeling in engineering), Moscow: MGTU im. N.E. Baumana, 2003, 496 p.

10. Klyuev V.V., Parkhomenko P.P., Sindeev I.M. et al., Nadezhnost' i effektivnost' v tekhnike. Tekhnicheskaya diagnostika (Reliability and efficiency in engineering. Technical diagnostics), Moscow: Mashinostroenie Publ., 1989, 352 p.

11. Kolotilov Yu.V., Korolenok A.M., Komarov D.N. et al., Expert systems for the constructions in the information environment, New York, 2012, 544 p.

12. Kolotilov Yu.V., Korolenok A.M., Komarov D.N. et al., Simulation of construction operations in the analytical systems, New York, 2013, 548 p.

We have considered several strategies for the organization of work to maintain technical condition of trunk pipelines and ensure their reliability: recovery strategy, condition monitored maintenance strategy and the strategy to manage technical condition taking into account possible damages.

In current conditions of limited technical, financial and economic resources, which are necessary to ensure reliable and safe operation of the main pipelines, the most sound strategy should be based on managing of the technical condition, taking into account possible damages, which requires the development of mechanisms for the optimal planning of control actions. Assessment of the technical condition of a pipeline is carried out within the framework of a specialized package of engineering and technical works, which includes acquisition, processing and analysis of a set of heterogeneous data. The model for managing the technical condition of trunk pipelines is based on forecasting, taking into account the differential assessment of the risks of failures on various pipeline sections. Methodical approaches to the planning and implementation of maintenance and repair of main pipelines with the application of a logic-probabilistic approach to ranking pipeline sections are presented.

Assessment of trunk pipeline condition on the basis of risk criteria has shown the exceptional importance of categorization of possible conditions of trunk pipeline sections. The authors have analyzed the most common causes of trunk pipeline failures: corrosion, mechanical damage to pipelines with external interference and failures due to construction defects. The results of the analysis of the causes of typical failures of aging piping systems show that in terms of criticality the most important failures are failures due to corrosion of metal pipes. An example of a description of a logical inference tree is given when analyzing the possibility of corrosion of metal pipes.

References

1. Lisin Yu.V., Neganov D.A., Varshitskiy V.M., Justified choice of repeated test interval as a guarantee of faultless pipeline operation (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2017, no. 3, pp. 32–40.

2. Khafizov A.R., Nazarova M.N., Tsenev A.N., Tsenev N.K., On the role of construction and metallurgic defects in destruction failure of main pipelines (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2017, no. 3, pp. 24–31.

3. Mazur I.I., Ivantsov O.M., Bezopasnost' truboprovodnykh sistem (Safety of pipeline systems), Moscow: Elima Publ., 2004, 1097 p.

4. Makhutov N.A., Prochnost' i bezopasnost': fundamental'nye i prikladnye issledovaniya (Strength and safety: fundamental and applied research), Novosibirsk: Nauka Publ., 2008, 528 p.

5. Makhutov N.A., Lisin Yu.V., Gadenin M.M. et al., Safety of oil products pipelines by risk criteria (In Russ.), Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov, 2012, no. 3, pp. 10–16.

6. Kozlitin A.M., Teoriya i metody analiza riska slozhnykh tekhnicheskikh sistem (Theory and methods of risk analysis of complex technical systems), Saratov: Publ. of Saratov State Technical University (SGTU), 2009, 200 p.

7. Kozlitin P.A., Kozlitin A.M., Teoreticheskie osnovy i metody sistemnogo analiza promyshlennoy bezopasnosti ob"ektov teploenergetiki s uchetom riska (Theoretical bases and methods of system analysis of industrial safety of heat power facilities taking into account the risk), Saratov: Publ. of Saratov State Technical University, 2009, 156 p.

8. Samarskiy A.A., Mikhaylov A.P., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie: idei, metody, primery (Mathematical modeling: ideas, methods, examples), Moscow: Fizmatlit Publ., 2002, 320 p.

9. Zarubin B.C., Krishchenko A.P., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v tekhnike (Mathematical modeling in engineering), Moscow: MGTU im. N.E. Baumana, 2003, 496 p.

10. Klyuev V.V., Parkhomenko P.P., Sindeev I.M. et al., Nadezhnost' i effektivnost' v tekhnike. Tekhnicheskaya diagnostika (Reliability and efficiency in engineering. Technical diagnostics), Moscow: Mashinostroenie Publ., 1989, 352 p.

11. Kolotilov Yu.V., Korolenok A.M., Komarov D.N. et al., Expert systems for the constructions in the information environment, New York, 2012, 544 p.

12. Kolotilov Yu.V., Korolenok A.M., Komarov D.N. et al., Simulation of construction operations in the analytical systems, New York, 2013, 548 p.


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