Methods of risks and uncertainties evaluation according to SPE-PRMS classification of reserves and resources

Authors: I.S. Gutman, I.Yu. Balaban (Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, RF, Moscow)

Key words: classification of reserves and resources, SPE-PRMS classification, reserves and resources of oil and gas, reserves categories.

The article discusses risks and uncertainties as a basis for SPE-PRMS classification of reserves and resources. Dependence from geological heterogeneity of probable and possible reserves categorizing based on probabilistic method are shown. The examples of statistically justified methods for determining the range of uncertainty through the calculation of complementary percentiles are given. Doubtful aspects of the current practice of SPE-PRMS system usage are considered.

References
1. Petroleum Resources Management System, SPE, Richardson, Texas, USA, 2007, March, 47 p.
2. Gutman I.S., Balaban I.Yu., Geostatistika v promyslovo-geologicheskikh
issledovaniyakh (Geostatistics in the oil field and geological investigations),
Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2011, 154 p.
3. Gutman I.S., Metody podscheta zapasov nefti i gaza (Methods of calculating
oil and gas reserves), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1985, 224 p.
4. Petersil'e V.I., Poroskun V.I., Yatsenko G.G., Metodicheskie rekomendatsii
po podschetu geologicheskikh zapasov nefti i gaza ob"emnym metodom
(Guidelines on the calculation of oil and gas geological reserves by volumetric method), Moscow - Tver': Publ. of VNIGNI, NPTs “Tver'geofizika”, 2003, 260 p.
5. Guidelines for application of the Petroleum Resources Management System
(November 2011), SPE/AAPG/WPC/SPEE/SEG, 2011, URL:
http://geodc.aapg.org/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf
6. Gutman I.S., The basic features of the new Russian Classification of reserves and resources of oil and gas (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo – Oil Industry, 2014, no. 8, pp. 10–14. 

Key words: classification of reserves and resources, SPE-PRMS classification, reserves and resources of oil and gas, reserves categories.

The article discusses risks and uncertainties as a basis for SPE-PRMS classification of reserves and resources. Dependence from geological heterogeneity of probable and possible reserves categorizing based on probabilistic method are shown. The examples of statistically justified methods for determining the range of uncertainty through the calculation of complementary percentiles are given. Doubtful aspects of the current practice of SPE-PRMS system usage are considered.

References
1. Petroleum Resources Management System, SPE, Richardson, Texas, USA, 2007, March, 47 p.
2. Gutman I.S., Balaban I.Yu., Geostatistika v promyslovo-geologicheskikh
issledovaniyakh (Geostatistics in the oil field and geological investigations),
Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2011, 154 p.
3. Gutman I.S., Metody podscheta zapasov nefti i gaza (Methods of calculating
oil and gas reserves), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1985, 224 p.
4. Petersil'e V.I., Poroskun V.I., Yatsenko G.G., Metodicheskie rekomendatsii
po podschetu geologicheskikh zapasov nefti i gaza ob"emnym metodom
(Guidelines on the calculation of oil and gas geological reserves by volumetric method), Moscow - Tver': Publ. of VNIGNI, NPTs “Tver'geofizika”, 2003, 260 p.
5. Guidelines for application of the Petroleum Resources Management System
(November 2011), SPE/AAPG/WPC/SPEE/SEG, 2011, URL:
http://geodc.aapg.org/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf
6. Gutman I.S., The basic features of the new Russian Classification of reserves and resources of oil and gas (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo – Oil Industry, 2014, no. 8, pp. 10–14. 


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