On the basis of the hydrodynamic model using statistical modeling estimated is the impact on the dynamics of oil withdrawal of three uncertain factors: changing the position of the oil-water contact and the surface boundaries of the transition zone, while maintaining the value of the initial oil reserves; possible variations in the density of heavy oil; change in the distribution of zones of different phase permeabilities in the reservoir. Mathematical modeling of the 100 realizations of PVT properties of oil-water zone showed good stability of the base variant of development with respect to changes in these factors. The bulk of the realizations leads to minor changes in the design dynamics of production, although the variation in the cumulative production for individual wells is much larger.
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