Comparative analysis of the use of probabilistic and fuzzy methods of uncertainties and risks assessment at calculation reserves and resources of hydrocarbons

Authors: A.E. Altunin, M.V. Semukhin (TNNС LLC)
The comparative possibilities of the fuzzy set theory and probabilistic and statistical methods (Monte Carlo) to estimate the uncertainties at the calculation of oil, gas and condensate by the volume method are analyzed. The question of application of risk factors for the exploratory objects in probabilistic and fuzzy formulations of the problem of assessment of hydrocarbon reserves is considered.
Keywords: estimations of risks and uncertainty, calculation of stocks and resources of hydrocarbons, the theory of indistinct sets and is likelihood-statistical methods.
The comparative possibilities of the fuzzy set theory and probabilistic and statistical methods (Monte Carlo) to estimate the uncertainties at the calculation of oil, gas and condensate by the volume method are analyzed. The question of application of risk factors for the exploratory objects in probabilistic and fuzzy formulations of the problem of assessment of hydrocarbon reserves is considered.
Keywords: estimations of risks and uncertainty, calculation of stocks and resources of hydrocarbons, the theory of indistinct sets and is likelihood-statistical methods.


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