The article presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing climate risks, developed and implemented in Zarubezhneft JSC. The process consists of six interrelated phases: collection of climate data (based on materials of Roshydromet and regional models of CORDEx), the comparison of actual criteria with the baseline values, the calculation of the intensity changes, the assessment of negative impact on the free cash flow and volumes of production, cross-functional risk modeling sessions and damages modeling with the use of specialized software (ModelRisk, @Risk). Using the example of abnormal atmospheric precipitations in 2022, it is shown how going beyond the forecast ranges leads to a reassessment of the risk and assigning it the status of significant. Special attention is paid to the role of interdisciplinary risk sessions bringing together experts from various fields, which enables not only to adjust estimates, but also to identify opportunities such as reducing infrastructure operating costs when temperature conditions change. The modeling results are integrated into the financial and economic models of the company, ensuring transparency of management decisions. The methodology complies with the principles of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and demonstrates the effectiveness of a systematic approach to minimize damage and increase business sustainability. The introduction of artificial intelligence tools to improve the accuracy of forecasts in the face of growing climatic uncertainty is recognized as a promising area of development.
References
1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: edited by Masson-Delmotte V. et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2023, 2391 p.,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
2. SASB Standards: Oil & Gas – Exploration & Production. Sustainable Industry Classification System® (SICS®) EM-EP, under Stewardship of the International Sustainability Standards Board,Version 2023-12, URL: https://sasb.ifrs.org/standards/
