The article discusses a new concept of multilevel mathematical modeling as the basis of a decision support system for the development of oil deposits at a late stage. The motivation for creating a new concept is the enormous uncertainty of the modeling object – oil reservoir. The article considers various reasons for such uncertainty, in particular, the ambiguity of the rescaling procedure and numerical effects in solving the equations of multiphase filtration in the reservoir. The proposed concept of multilevel modeling consists of a stage of multiscale modeling (modeling of nested objects of different scales: core fragment – core – borehole neighborhood - formation) and a stage of hierarchical modeling (reservoir modeling using models of varying complexity). In this case, the principle of optimal complexity models is used. The scheme of multilevel modeling is substantiated, the implementation of which should allow to level the problem of colossal uncertainty and make operational decisions on the development of deposits. Such a scheme assumes the construction of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (as the vertices of the hierarchy of models) based on the finite element method, excluding its total dependence on the geological model, numerical effects and the problem of rescaling. The proposed concept is used in the developed architecture of the decision-making system, in relation to which five requirements are formulated: 1) taking into account the peculiarities of the approach to mathematical modeling; 2) the ability of the decision-maker to access his level of the spatial and temporal hierarchy of managerial decisions; 3) the possibility of using a variety of approaches to working with information (in particular, the case-based approach); 4) consideration of the surface development of the field; 5) consideration of the iterative business planning process based on the economic model. It is noted that it is advisable to use an ontological knowledge base to create an integrated model.
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