The article presents a methodology for managing of base oil production at current production capacity. A novel approach to operational monitoring of field development system is described. A reservoir model based on waterflooding blocks and a method for prediction of the main oil-field performance indicators are outlined. Newton's method is detailed in matrix form for a single-phase filtration model. The proposed method was tested on synthetic data and the comparison of the obtained results with the hydrodynamic simulation is performed to validate the method. An analysis of medium-range prediction is illustrated by an example of several test calculations. A software tool based on the suggested method was developed and commissioned. The paper provides the description of the proposed tool main modules: an automated processing of the input data and the model history matching at the beginning, prediction models initialization at the next step and the analysis of the obtained results as a final part of the workflow. An addition module of the tool is a pro-active factorial analysis. It gives a possibility to estimate oil production loss of wells and reservoir blocks during the forecast period. Based on this information a user can plan some compensatory measures in advance to increase an ultimate oil recovery. An evaluation of the presented method was carried out on the wells stock of real field. A module for automated search for wells to be transferred to water injection stock or shutdown was utilized. This is an integer optimization problem. The module solves it using simulated annealing method. The result of the calculation is an optimal set of wells transferring or shutting down. The efficiency of the solution is evaluated based on economic model which takes into account operating costs and tax deductions.
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