Application of hierarchy analysis method in planning measures for soils temperature stabilization and geotechnical monitoring at oil and gas fields

UDK: УДК 624.139:622.276
DOI: DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2021-11-133-135
Key words: hierarchy analysis method, geotechnical monitoring, soil thermal stabilization, soil thermal stabilizers, matrices of pairwise comparisons, vector of local priorities, concordance index, concordance relation, random concordance, table of generalized priorities
Authors: U.S. Poverenniy1, V.A. Atroshchenko2 1NK Rosneft-NTC LLC, RF, Krasnodar 2Kuban State Technological University, RF, Krasnodar

The article provides an innovative approach to prioritizing the installation of soil thermal stabilizers when performing activities based on the results of geotechnical monitoring of oil and gas fields. The urgency of the problem lies in the significant risks of direct damage during thawing of permafrost soils. The proposed method is based on the use of the hierarchy analysis method. The method allows to reduce the influence of subjective factors and improve the quality of management decisions of the operation services of oil and gas producing enterprises. The article presents the factors influencing the priority of the installation of thermal stabilizers as a way to ensure the safety of objects when the temperature regime of soils changes. The use of soil thermal stabilizers is accepted as the most effective way to regulate the thermal state of the soil. It is proposed to decompose the task into a 3-level hierarchy. Next, matrices are created for pairwise comparisons of factors and structures with each other, depending on various criteria. The comparison is performed using a scale of relative importance. For the resulting comparison matrices, vectors of local priorities are formed, which express the relative influence of a set of elements on an element of the adjacent top level. The consistency of local priorities is determined by calculating the consistency index and the consistency ratio. Depending on the size of the matrices, the consistency ratio is compared with the corresponding value of random consistency to check the reliability of judgments in pairwise comparisons. The final stage is the preparation of a table of generalized priorities, in accordance with which a decision is made on the ranking of priorities for the appointment of measures for thermal stabilization of soils. The article gives an example of choosing the optimal installation of soil thermal stabilizers for 3 structures based on 4 criteria. The proposed technology can be used to determine the priorities of the geological and technical measures network in the fields, where previously the observation of deformations of structures and temperature control was not provided.

References

1. Informatsionnyy byulleten' “Izmenenie klimata”, 2020, V. 87, URL: http://global-climate-change.ru/downl/byulletenyo/Izmenenie_klimata_N87_OctNov_2020.pdf

2. Gilev N.G., Zenkov E.V., Poverennyy Yu.S. et al., Optimization of capital costs for pile foundations during construction of oil and gas production facilities on permafrost soils (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2019, no. 11, pp. 46–49, DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-11-46-49

3. Saati T.L., Decision making for leaders: The analytical hierarchy process for decisions in a complex world, Wadsworth, 1988.

The article provides an innovative approach to prioritizing the installation of soil thermal stabilizers when performing activities based on the results of geotechnical monitoring of oil and gas fields. The urgency of the problem lies in the significant risks of direct damage during thawing of permafrost soils. The proposed method is based on the use of the hierarchy analysis method. The method allows to reduce the influence of subjective factors and improve the quality of management decisions of the operation services of oil and gas producing enterprises. The article presents the factors influencing the priority of the installation of thermal stabilizers as a way to ensure the safety of objects when the temperature regime of soils changes. The use of soil thermal stabilizers is accepted as the most effective way to regulate the thermal state of the soil. It is proposed to decompose the task into a 3-level hierarchy. Next, matrices are created for pairwise comparisons of factors and structures with each other, depending on various criteria. The comparison is performed using a scale of relative importance. For the resulting comparison matrices, vectors of local priorities are formed, which express the relative influence of a set of elements on an element of the adjacent top level. The consistency of local priorities is determined by calculating the consistency index and the consistency ratio. Depending on the size of the matrices, the consistency ratio is compared with the corresponding value of random consistency to check the reliability of judgments in pairwise comparisons. The final stage is the preparation of a table of generalized priorities, in accordance with which a decision is made on the ranking of priorities for the appointment of measures for thermal stabilization of soils. The article gives an example of choosing the optimal installation of soil thermal stabilizers for 3 structures based on 4 criteria. The proposed technology can be used to determine the priorities of the geological and technical measures network in the fields, where previously the observation of deformations of structures and temperature control was not provided.

References

1. Informatsionnyy byulleten' “Izmenenie klimata”, 2020, V. 87, URL: http://global-climate-change.ru/downl/byulletenyo/Izmenenie_klimata_N87_OctNov_2020.pdf

2. Gilev N.G., Zenkov E.V., Poverennyy Yu.S. et al., Optimization of capital costs for pile foundations during construction of oil and gas production facilities on permafrost soils (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2019, no. 11, pp. 46–49, DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-11-46-49

3. Saati T.L., Decision making for leaders: The analytical hierarchy process for decisions in a complex world, Wadsworth, 1988.



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