Prospects for the development of the oil sector of the global economy in 2025-2026 in the assessments of leading foreign research centers

UDK: 330.524:622.276

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2025-9-6-12

Key words: forecasts and scenarios, results and assessments, evolution of assessments, global economy and its oil sector, demand for oil, oil production, prices on the world oil market

Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The article shows that the upcoming development of the oil industry will be significantly affected by a number of events and trends that originated or developed in 2024. This determined the main framework for forecast estimates of the development of the oil sector for 2025-2026 and a more distant future. It is noted that the leading world analytical centers - the International Energy Agency (IEA), the OPEC Secretariat and the US Energy Information Administration - conduct assessments on a monthly basis. An analysis of these estimates made in January-June 2025 shows that there is currently no clear idea of either the trends in the upcoming development of the oil sector of the global economy or the volumes of demand for oil and other types of liquid fuels. A comparative analysis of the considered forecasts of OPEC, the US EIA and the IEA revealed that they show a tendency to adjust the energy transition concept of the OECD countries, which may lead to a revision of trends, as well as the volumes of global demand for oil and its production in the long term, towards their increase. Based on the analysis conducted, the article concludes that currently in the «Western» world there is a consensus on the long-term point of view of OPEC that the future energy needs of the world should be met in a comprehensive manner - both through the accelerated development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency technologies, and the use of traditional hydrocarbon fuels.

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