The results of the analysis of accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities according to the data of Rostekhnadzor (Federal Environmental, Industrial and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia) show the imperfection of the existing accident and their consequences forecasting systems. Forecasting shortcomings caused major damage, for example, in an accident in the tank farm of TPP-3 of the Norilsk-Taimyr Energy Company in May 2020. These data testify to the relevance of the study of the issues of improving the accuracy of forecasting the accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities. One of the possible ways to improve the accuracy of forecasting can be the application of modern methods of accident consequences modelling.
The article presents the analysis of methods and software tools for modelling the consequences of possible accidents at pipeline transport facilities in order to choose the most accurate ones for damage forecasting, the necessary forces and means for its confinement and response, as well as the development of protective structures. As part of the development of the quality management system of the organization providing services for pipeline transportation of oil and oil products, in terms of improving the efficiency of planning and implementation of the processes of prevention, possible accidents confinement and response, the forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents plays an important role. Accident consequence forecasting assumes assessment of the most probable scenarios of possible accidents, potential places of their occurrence, accident consequences modelling with determination of accident hazard impact zones, accident damage assessment. Oil and oil products spills modelling method on the basis of the terrain is recommended as one of the methods of forecasting the consequences of an accident at the main pipeline transport facilities as a tool to improve the efficiency of process management associated with the accident prevention, confinement and response.
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