Modelling the consequences of possible accidents as a mechanism to improve the efficiency of planning and implementation of confinement and response operations

UDK: 622.692.4.004
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-10-108-112
Key words: accident confinement and response, main pipeline, modelling, hazardous production facility, industrial safety, process approach, oil/oil products spill, risk, quality management system
Authors: S.A. Polovkov (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow), A.E. Gonchar (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow), V.N. Slepnev (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow), A.F. Maksimenko (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The results of the analysis of accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities according to the data of Rostekhnadzor (Federal Environmental, Industrial and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia) show the imperfection of the existing accident and their consequences forecasting systems. Forecasting shortcomings caused major damage, for example, in an accident in the tank farm of TPP-3 of the Norilsk-Taimyr Energy Company in May 2020. These data testify to the relevance of the study of the issues of improving the accuracy of forecasting the accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities. One of the possible ways to improve the accuracy of forecasting can be the application of modern methods of accident consequences modelling.

The article presents the analysis of methods and software tools for modelling the consequences of possible accidents at pipeline transport facilities in order to choose the most accurate ones for damage forecasting, the necessary forces and means for its confinement and response, as well as the development of protective structures. As part of the development of the quality management system of the organization providing services for pipeline transportation of oil and oil products, in terms of improving the efficiency of planning and implementation of the processes of prevention, possible accidents confinement and response, the forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents plays an important role. Accident consequence forecasting assumes assessment of the most probable scenarios of possible accidents, potential places of their occurrence, accident consequences modelling with determination of accident hazard impact zones, accident damage assessment. Oil and oil products spills modelling method on the basis of the terrain is recommended as one of the methods of forecasting the consequences of an accident at the main pipeline transport facilities as a tool to improve the efficiency of process management associated with the accident prevention, confinement and response.

References

1. http://www.gosnadzor.ru/public/annual_reports/

2. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/8643555

3. Slepnev V.N., Maksimenko A.F., The basic principles of building a quality management system for prevention, localization and liquidation of effects of accidents at pipeline transport facilities (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2018, V. 8, no. 4, pp. 456–468, DOI: 10.28999/2541-9595-2018-8-4-456-467

4. Slepnev V.N., Maksimenko A.F., Organizing the quality management system for the processes of prevention, localization and elimination of accidents at pipeline transport facilities (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2019, no. 2, pp. 106–111, DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-2-106-111.

5. Khludenev S.A. et al., Landscape modeling of flammable liquids spills resulting the accident and its impact on the accuracy of technological risk assessment (In Russ.), Nauchnye issledovaniya i innovatsii, 2013, V. 7, no. 1–4, pp. 147–156.

6. Lisina D.O., Glebova L.V., Oil spill modelling as a method of preliminary planning of emergencies (In Russ.), Geologiya, geografiya i global'naya energiya, 2014, no. 3 (54), pp. 139–142.

7. Gil'manov S.A., Chislennoe modelirovanie razliva nad nepronitsaemym gruntom (Numerical modeling of a spill over impermeable ground), Proceedings of Mavlyutov Institute of Mechanics, 2012, V. 9, pp. 69–71.

8. Elistratov N.L., Olenchikova T.Yu., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie posledstviy avariynykh razlivov nefti i nefteproduktov (Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the consequences of accidental oil and oil products spills), Proceedings of All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference “Yuzhno-Ural'skaya molodezhnaya shkola po matematicheskomu modelirovaniyu”, Chelyabinsk, 2014, pp. 52–59.

9. Baisheva A.R., Sayfutdinova G.M., Geoinformatsionnoe modelirovanie avariynogo razliva nefti pri reshenii zadach trekhmernoy vizualizatsii situatsiy na territorii rezervuarnogo parka (Geoinformation modeling of an emergency oil spill when solving problems of three-dimensional visualization of situations on the territory of a tank farm), Collected papers “Geoinformatsionnye tekhnologii v proektirovanii i sozdanii korporativnykh informatsionnykh sistem” (Geoinformation technologies in the design and creation of corporate information systems), 2012, pp. 109–115.

10. Negodin V.A., Use of the asp.net platform when developing an application for modeling an oil emergency spill (In Russ.), Forum molodykh uchenykh, 2019, no. 8 (36), pp. 184–186.

11. Kurakina N.I., Myshko R.A., Landscape modeling of oil emergency spills using GIS (In Russ.), Izvestiya SPbGETU LETI, 2020, no. 2, pp. 53–60.

12. Gitis V.A. et al., Mathematical modeling of surface runoff and pollution transport (In Russ.), Informatsionnye protsessy, 2007, V. 7, no. 2, pp. 168–182.

13. Polovkov S.A. et al., Assessment of the risk of damage to pipelines located in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Modeling of a spill and determination of the possible volume of oil taking surface topography into consideration (In Russ.), Territoriya Neftegaz, 2016, no. 12, pp. 88–93.

14. Polovkov S.A., Shestakov R.Yu., Aysmatullin I.R., Slepnev V.N., System conception in the development of measures on prevention and localization of accident consequences on oil pipelines in the arctic zone of Russian Federation (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2017, no. 1(28), pp. 20–29.

15. Polovkov S.A. et al., Development of additional protecting constructions from oil spills based on three-dimensional digital modeling (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2018, V. 8, no. 2, pp. 197–205, DOI:10.28999/2541-9595-2018-8-2-197-205.

16. Aysmatullin I.R. et al., A systematic approach to protecting the Arctic from the effects of accidents on trunk pipelines (In Russ.), Neftegaz.Ru, 2018, no. 5, pp. 66–72.

The results of the analysis of accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities according to the data of Rostekhnadzor (Federal Environmental, Industrial and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia) show the imperfection of the existing accident and their consequences forecasting systems. Forecasting shortcomings caused major damage, for example, in an accident in the tank farm of TPP-3 of the Norilsk-Taimyr Energy Company in May 2020. These data testify to the relevance of the study of the issues of improving the accuracy of forecasting the accidents at the main pipeline transport facilities. One of the possible ways to improve the accuracy of forecasting can be the application of modern methods of accident consequences modelling.

The article presents the analysis of methods and software tools for modelling the consequences of possible accidents at pipeline transport facilities in order to choose the most accurate ones for damage forecasting, the necessary forces and means for its confinement and response, as well as the development of protective structures. As part of the development of the quality management system of the organization providing services for pipeline transportation of oil and oil products, in terms of improving the efficiency of planning and implementation of the processes of prevention, possible accidents confinement and response, the forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents plays an important role. Accident consequence forecasting assumes assessment of the most probable scenarios of possible accidents, potential places of their occurrence, accident consequences modelling with determination of accident hazard impact zones, accident damage assessment. Oil and oil products spills modelling method on the basis of the terrain is recommended as one of the methods of forecasting the consequences of an accident at the main pipeline transport facilities as a tool to improve the efficiency of process management associated with the accident prevention, confinement and response.

References

1. http://www.gosnadzor.ru/public/annual_reports/

2. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/8643555

3. Slepnev V.N., Maksimenko A.F., The basic principles of building a quality management system for prevention, localization and liquidation of effects of accidents at pipeline transport facilities (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2018, V. 8, no. 4, pp. 456–468, DOI: 10.28999/2541-9595-2018-8-4-456-467

4. Slepnev V.N., Maksimenko A.F., Organizing the quality management system for the processes of prevention, localization and elimination of accidents at pipeline transport facilities (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2019, no. 2, pp. 106–111, DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-2-106-111.

5. Khludenev S.A. et al., Landscape modeling of flammable liquids spills resulting the accident and its impact on the accuracy of technological risk assessment (In Russ.), Nauchnye issledovaniya i innovatsii, 2013, V. 7, no. 1–4, pp. 147–156.

6. Lisina D.O., Glebova L.V., Oil spill modelling as a method of preliminary planning of emergencies (In Russ.), Geologiya, geografiya i global'naya energiya, 2014, no. 3 (54), pp. 139–142.

7. Gil'manov S.A., Chislennoe modelirovanie razliva nad nepronitsaemym gruntom (Numerical modeling of a spill over impermeable ground), Proceedings of Mavlyutov Institute of Mechanics, 2012, V. 9, pp. 69–71.

8. Elistratov N.L., Olenchikova T.Yu., Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie posledstviy avariynykh razlivov nefti i nefteproduktov (Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the consequences of accidental oil and oil products spills), Proceedings of All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference “Yuzhno-Ural'skaya molodezhnaya shkola po matematicheskomu modelirovaniyu”, Chelyabinsk, 2014, pp. 52–59.

9. Baisheva A.R., Sayfutdinova G.M., Geoinformatsionnoe modelirovanie avariynogo razliva nefti pri reshenii zadach trekhmernoy vizualizatsii situatsiy na territorii rezervuarnogo parka (Geoinformation modeling of an emergency oil spill when solving problems of three-dimensional visualization of situations on the territory of a tank farm), Collected papers “Geoinformatsionnye tekhnologii v proektirovanii i sozdanii korporativnykh informatsionnykh sistem” (Geoinformation technologies in the design and creation of corporate information systems), 2012, pp. 109–115.

10. Negodin V.A., Use of the asp.net platform when developing an application for modeling an oil emergency spill (In Russ.), Forum molodykh uchenykh, 2019, no. 8 (36), pp. 184–186.

11. Kurakina N.I., Myshko R.A., Landscape modeling of oil emergency spills using GIS (In Russ.), Izvestiya SPbGETU LETI, 2020, no. 2, pp. 53–60.

12. Gitis V.A. et al., Mathematical modeling of surface runoff and pollution transport (In Russ.), Informatsionnye protsessy, 2007, V. 7, no. 2, pp. 168–182.

13. Polovkov S.A. et al., Assessment of the risk of damage to pipelines located in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Modeling of a spill and determination of the possible volume of oil taking surface topography into consideration (In Russ.), Territoriya Neftegaz, 2016, no. 12, pp. 88–93.

14. Polovkov S.A., Shestakov R.Yu., Aysmatullin I.R., Slepnev V.N., System conception in the development of measures on prevention and localization of accident consequences on oil pipelines in the arctic zone of Russian Federation (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2017, no. 1(28), pp. 20–29.

15. Polovkov S.A. et al., Development of additional protecting constructions from oil spills based on three-dimensional digital modeling (In Russ.), Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation, 2018, V. 8, no. 2, pp. 197–205, DOI:10.28999/2541-9595-2018-8-2-197-205.

16. Aysmatullin I.R. et al., A systematic approach to protecting the Arctic from the effects of accidents on trunk pipelines (In Russ.), Neftegaz.Ru, 2018, no. 5, pp. 66–72.


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