The future of the oil industry in the face of energy transition. View analysis and ratings of foreign experts

UDK: 330.524 : 620.9
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-1-10-14
Key words: energy transition, technologies, innovation, power consumption, energy efficiency, renewable energy sources (RES), oil, natural gas, coal, electric power industry
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow; Institute of Energy Strategy, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The paper considers the problems of the mankind transition to the energy of the future, called the Energy Transition (or Global Energy Transformation). The reasons for the transition necessity, the possibilities and conditions of its implementation, including the required investments, are analyzed. It is shown that the energy transition became possible as a result of a number of technological innovations achieved at the beginning of the XXI century in the energy industry of the world economy. The analysis of the main prognostic studies and scenarios of the transition to the energy of the future is carried out, the influence of various factors determining the global demand for energy resources and its structure up to 2040-2050 is shown: increase in energy efficiency, introduction of low-carbon technologies, development of renewable energy sources and increase in their share in total consumption primary energy carriers. Possible results of energy transfer are shown: volumes and structure of global energy consumption, dynamics of demand for oil and natural gas. It is concluded that during the transition period (until 2035–2040), oil will retain a significant role in shaping the global energy balance, but demand for it will decrease. The role of technological innovations is noted, the main factors determining the predicted reduction in oil requirements are considered: the electrification of cars, passenger and light commercial vehicles; increased fuel efficiency; increased use of biofuels and natural gas in vehicles; reduced use of petroleum products in shipping; transition to the production of bioplastics and the growth of plastic recycling. The role of oil and gas companies in the context of the energy transition and the challenges they face are shown, Eastern Economic Forum recommendations for politicians and governments are given.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Mirovaya energetika: osnovnye problemy i tendentsii razvitiya (World energy: main problems and development trends), In: Sovremennaya mirovaya politika (Modern world politics): edited by Bazhanov E.P., Moscow: Dashkov i K Publ., 2018.

2. Mastepanov A.M., The main trends and factors in the development of World Energy in the 2010s (In Russ.), Vestnik Diplomaticheskoy akademii MID Rossii. Rossiya i mir, 2019, no. 2(20), pp. 40–63.

3. Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019. Insight Report. World Economic Forum, June 2019,

URL:http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_2019 – Report.pdf

4. Future of Energy. Global Issue. Co-curated with: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, URL: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb00000038oN6EAI?tab=publications

5. Sidorovich V., Kuda v energetike veter duet (Where in the energy wind blows), URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2019/07/15/806611-kuda-v-energetike-veter-duet?utm_campaig...

6. Fostering effective energy transition, 2019 edition. Insight Report. World Economic Forum, March 2019, URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Fostering_Effective_Energy_Transition_2019.pdf

7. Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050. International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018, 76 r.,

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Global-Energy-Transition-A-Roadmap-to-2050

8. Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition). International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018. – 52 r.,

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/Global-

energy-transformation-A-roadmap-to-2050-2019Edition

9. World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, 2018,

URL: https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2018.

10. Mastepanov A.M., Oil in perspective global energy balance: at the crossroad of opinions and estimates (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2019, no. 4 (172), pp. 5–8.

11. Perspectives for the Energy Transition: Investment needs for a low-carbon energy system (OECD/IEA and IRENA 2017),

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Mar/Perspectives-for-the-energy-transition - Investment-needs-for-a-low-carbon-energy-system

12. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook, September 2018, URL: http://www.opec.org.

13. Druzhina V., Miru nuzhno budet vse men'she nefti v blizhayshie desyatiletiya (The world will need less oil in the coming decades), URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/blogs/2016/07/13/649045-miru-menshe-nefti

14. Hydrogen scaling up, A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition, Hydrogen Council November 2017,

URL: http://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Hydrogen-Scaling-up_Hydrogen-Council_2017.comp...

15. Berns M., Brognaux C., Dewar A. et al., In a warming world. How should big oil navigate the future, URL: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/warming-world-big-oil-navigate-future.aspx

16. How is big oil is transitioning to power the future, URL:

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/oil-gas/how-can-big-oil-transition-to-power-the-future

17. Oil and gas industry, Co-curated with: James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University,

URL: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000LOnGEAW?tab=publications

The paper considers the problems of the mankind transition to the energy of the future, called the Energy Transition (or Global Energy Transformation). The reasons for the transition necessity, the possibilities and conditions of its implementation, including the required investments, are analyzed. It is shown that the energy transition became possible as a result of a number of technological innovations achieved at the beginning of the XXI century in the energy industry of the world economy. The analysis of the main prognostic studies and scenarios of the transition to the energy of the future is carried out, the influence of various factors determining the global demand for energy resources and its structure up to 2040-2050 is shown: increase in energy efficiency, introduction of low-carbon technologies, development of renewable energy sources and increase in their share in total consumption primary energy carriers. Possible results of energy transfer are shown: volumes and structure of global energy consumption, dynamics of demand for oil and natural gas. It is concluded that during the transition period (until 2035–2040), oil will retain a significant role in shaping the global energy balance, but demand for it will decrease. The role of technological innovations is noted, the main factors determining the predicted reduction in oil requirements are considered: the electrification of cars, passenger and light commercial vehicles; increased fuel efficiency; increased use of biofuels and natural gas in vehicles; reduced use of petroleum products in shipping; transition to the production of bioplastics and the growth of plastic recycling. The role of oil and gas companies in the context of the energy transition and the challenges they face are shown, Eastern Economic Forum recommendations for politicians and governments are given.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Mirovaya energetika: osnovnye problemy i tendentsii razvitiya (World energy: main problems and development trends), In: Sovremennaya mirovaya politika (Modern world politics): edited by Bazhanov E.P., Moscow: Dashkov i K Publ., 2018.

2. Mastepanov A.M., The main trends and factors in the development of World Energy in the 2010s (In Russ.), Vestnik Diplomaticheskoy akademii MID Rossii. Rossiya i mir, 2019, no. 2(20), pp. 40–63.

3. Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019. Insight Report. World Economic Forum, June 2019,

URL:http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_2019 – Report.pdf

4. Future of Energy. Global Issue. Co-curated with: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, URL: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb00000038oN6EAI?tab=publications

5. Sidorovich V., Kuda v energetike veter duet (Where in the energy wind blows), URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2019/07/15/806611-kuda-v-energetike-veter-duet?utm_campaig...

6. Fostering effective energy transition, 2019 edition. Insight Report. World Economic Forum, March 2019, URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Fostering_Effective_Energy_Transition_2019.pdf

7. Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050. International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018, 76 r.,

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Global-Energy-Transition-A-Roadmap-to-2050

8. Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition). International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018. – 52 r.,

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/Global-

energy-transformation-A-roadmap-to-2050-2019Edition

9. World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, 2018,

URL: https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2018.

10. Mastepanov A.M., Oil in perspective global energy balance: at the crossroad of opinions and estimates (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2019, no. 4 (172), pp. 5–8.

11. Perspectives for the Energy Transition: Investment needs for a low-carbon energy system (OECD/IEA and IRENA 2017),

URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Mar/Perspectives-for-the-energy-transition - Investment-needs-for-a-low-carbon-energy-system

12. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook, September 2018, URL: http://www.opec.org.

13. Druzhina V., Miru nuzhno budet vse men'she nefti v blizhayshie desyatiletiya (The world will need less oil in the coming decades), URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/blogs/2016/07/13/649045-miru-menshe-nefti

14. Hydrogen scaling up, A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition, Hydrogen Council November 2017,

URL: http://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Hydrogen-Scaling-up_Hydrogen-Council_2017.comp...

15. Berns M., Brognaux C., Dewar A. et al., In a warming world. How should big oil navigate the future, URL: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/warming-world-big-oil-navigate-future.aspx

16. How is big oil is transitioning to power the future, URL:

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/oil-gas/how-can-big-oil-transition-to-power-the-future

17. Oil and gas industry, Co-curated with: James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University,

URL: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000LOnGEAW?tab=publications



Attention!
To buy the complete text of article (a format - PDF) or to read the material which is in open access only the authorized visitors of the website can. .

Mobile applications

Read our magazine on mobile devices

Загрузить в Google play

Press Releases

03.03.2021
25.02.2021
16.02.2021