Existing approaches to the creation of hydrodynamic model based on a single implementation of the geological model, lead to difficulties in adaptation – there is a need for additional artificial adjustments of the initial data, and, as a consequence, inaccurate assessment of the projected technological parameters of the development. In order to make balanced investment decisions on the development of deposits, it is necessary to take a comprehensive approach to the assessment of possible uncertainties. To solve this problem Rosneft Oil Company applies the iterative modeling approach, which provides a comprehensive assessment of possible variants of geological and technological models and allows you to vary the parameters of the model to assess uncertainty and risks in the calculation process.
The article describes the process of creating and selecting the most likely implementation of the geological model of the PK1 formation, providing the best adaptation to the history of development and minimal uncertainty in the prediction of technological parameters for the medium and long term. Implementations of the model include variations of the seismic base, distribution of the lithology parameter, filtration-capacitance properties of non-collectors, the volume of the aquifer and its activity. In the process of work at the first stage the specialists of Rosneft has created the basic implementation of the geological model, at the second stage of them on the basis of the developed complex parameter characterizing the degree of adaptation of the hydrodynamic model, the most probable was chosen. To verify the compliance of the geological implementation with the actual performance of wells used modern software modules of the RFD Company. Automatic algorithms were set up to search parameters and calculate the sensitivity of adaptation to their changes. The iterative calculation of filtration models based on the obtained geological realizations with a variation of the main parameters with a high degree of uncertainty is performed. The complex parameter proved by the authors allowed to choose the optimal geological and hydrodynamic basis.
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