Development forecasts for the largest segments of Russian oilfield services market

UDK: 622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-4-12-15
Key words: oil service, planning, forecasting, factor, development, scenario, strategy, trends
Authors: A.V. Beloshitsky (Bashneftegeofizika JSC, RF, Ufa)

The article presents the results of the analysis of the largest segments of the Russian oilfield services market such as drilling, well maintenance and workover, well logging. To analyze and forecast the state of the oilfield services market in Russia, the following sequence of steps was proposed: analysis of a separate segment of the oilfield services business and its indicators; analysis of the energy strategy of Russia; identifying trends affecting the oilfield services market; identification of factors affecting the development of the market; market volume forecasting. A scenario planning method was used to forecast the performance of the oilfield services market. The general factors that must be considered when developing a scenario for the development of the oilfield services industry as a whole are identified, the key ones being: hydrocarbon production; world oil prices; geopolitical situation; level of technology development and innovation; growth rates of prices for oilfield services; government regulation measures. For each of the three market segments (drilling, well maintenance and workover and well logging), specific factors were analyzed that will determine the development scenarios for this segment. Based on the analysis of the factors presented, industry trends, and analytical reviews, forecasts of market volumes in the considered segments of the Russian oilfield service business for the period up to 2030 are given. According to the calculations, drilling volumes will increase by 2030, however, the downward trend in the growth rates of drilling volumes in the medium and long term will continue. In the market for well maintenance and workover by 2030, an increase in the number of repairs and a rise in prices are predicted. The market will grow by an average of 9% annually. Similarly, the well survey market will show steady growth.


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