World oil industry current tendency is a transition to development tight reserves. In order to take into account all possible risks related to different kind of geological and technological uncertainties to help make a decision about project economic efficiency, we propose to utilize multivariate simulation for production forecast. Based on actual data from drilled out zones in deep-water part of clinoforms three types of sections were selected. A geological uncertainty those sections is determined by distance from a source of conglomerate. Digital models for each type were created with keeping major morphological features of associated sand bodies. A pool of simulation models was created by variating geological parameters (absolute permeability, net thickness, Corey coefficients at oil relative permeability curves, original oil in place) and technological parameters (fracture half length, fracture height, fracture conductivity). A process of creating multiple models was accomplished by program module RExLab and Rosneft’s program software complex RN-KIM. Latin hypercube algorithm was applied for generating approximately 5000 models for each type of geology. Out of calculated models were selected cases matching actual liquid production and water cut. The selected cases were being used for evaluating technical and economic efficiency of a development pattern within forecast period. As a result of calculation was given Recovery Factor probability distribution function and cumulative NPV per development areas which allow to accomplish an economical project assessment out of P10/P50/P90 perspectives.
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