The approach to the selection of the optimal development strategy on the example of oil field located on the continental shelf of Vietnam

UDK: 622.276.1/.4.04

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2018-9-40-43

Key words: offshore field, oil field, green field, probabilistic modeling, estimation of uncertainty, dynamic model, history matching, optimization of the development strategy

Authors: G.V. Sansiev (Zarubezhneft JSC, RF, Moscow), V.L. Terentiev (VNIIneft JSC, RF, Moscow), G.D. Fedorchenko (Zarubezhneft JSC, RF, Moscow), A.F. Galimova (Zarubezhneft JSC, RF, Moscow), T.S. Baranov (VNIIneft JSC, RF, Moscow), S.S. Gusev (VNIIneft JSC, RF, Moscow)

The article suggests an approach to the selection of the optimal development strategy of the greenfield in conditions of insufficient data and high geological uncertainty on the example of Beluga oil field located on the continental shelf of Vietnam. Development strategy selection approach consistently includes geological analysis, probabilistic static model, dynamic model, optimization of project solutions. Geological analysis allowed identifying the main geological uncertainties and their ranges. A calculation scheme of the static model is created. To simplify the calculation scheme, three sets of rules have been created comprising probable, pessimistic and optimistic geological scenarios. A variation of uncertainty parameters is performed within each geological scenario. To create a dynamic model, the calculation scheme for building a static model is supplemented with the rules for calculating the permeability field for the matching purpose on the of production logging and well testing results. Optimization of the development strategy is based on the net present value (NPV) for a probable geological scenario. The most probable value of the NPV and its range within the given uncertainty is calculated. Optimization is performed to ensure a stable-positive NPV value over a wide range of uncertainty parameter variations. As a result of the geological scenarios comparison, additional exploration activities are suggested.