The article contains the questions of development a ranking model of field pipelines for use in the formation of reconstruction and repair programs. The previous ranking model used in PJSC Rosneft Oil Company, before start this project, was constructed by analogy with the point-rating models are widely used by oil companies abroad. The main drawbacks of previous model were wide application of expert judgment in the appointment of numerical parameters and coefficients for calculating the probability of failure, economic impact assessment, as well as the lack of unification for the widespread use of the model throughout the company's pipeline fleet.
The main requirement in the development of the model was to ensure the transparency and universality of the selection procedure in application of this model for any field pipelines (with different characteristics, conditions of laying, pumping modes, etc.).
Development a program of improving the reliability of pipelines, a prioritization model created on analogy with the models used in North American companies. The difference is a complete replacement of expert parameters values to calculated parameters. 16 parameters were selected based on statistical database processing and review of experience of Russian and foreign oil and gas companies.
Priority for repair of oilfield pipelines are based on the ranking of predisposition to failure using the matrix to prioritize the risks. In the program of improving the reliability of pipelines shall enter the pipelines with the highest values of predisposition and damage in the event of a failure.
Comparison of the calculation results showed that the forecast ability of the prioritization model with the calculated coefficients improved on 2,4 times.
References
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