Risk assessment during planning of wells targeting of terrigenous and carbonate sediments

UDK: 622.24.002.2

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2025-7-22-25

Key words: risk profile, modeling, planning, well drilling, process automation

Authors: I.V. Davletshina (TatNIPIneft, RF, Almetyevsk); V.V. Minaev (TatNIPIneft, RF, Almetyevsk); I.R. Mukhliev (Tatneft-Dobycha JV, RF, Almetyevsk); R.R. Davletshin (TatNIPIneft, RF, Almetyevsk); I.G. Fattakhov (TatNIPIneft, RF, Almetyevsk); A.A. Pimenov (TatNIPIneft, RF, Almetyevsk)

A well is a multifunctional complex of a single life cycle system with set of uncertainties. Planning stage of each well (production, injection) should include evaluation of all possible uncertainties and risks and their possible effects on the efficiency of the well and overall field and reservoir performance in the long run. Thereby, assessment of possible risks and loss factors and analysis of well site (well pad) at the planning stage are of great importance. Such factors as presence of flushed zones, reserves depletion, lithofacies variability, unconfirmed reservoir pressure and structural plan, premature water breakthrough through fractures (for carbonate rocks), coning issues (for terrigenous rocks), drilling parameters (sidetracks, horizontal wells, multilateral wells) have a strong impact on ultimate well performance. Adequate and comprehensive risk assessment performed by experts in different fields (geoscientists, reservoir engineers, production engineers), and activities proposed to mitigate such risks will eliminate unplanned production, drilling and production problems and reduce extra costs for repair. The paper considers a detailed risk description workflow, risks subdivision, categorization depending on well function (production or injection), and possible activities to eliminate or reduce risks at the stage of well planning. A number of criteria are presented for risk assessment, digitalization, and automation for further decision on project well drilling.

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