Estimation of residual resources of the equipment operation at dangerous industrial object on the basis of dynamic model of deterioration and ageing

Authors: A.V. Zlotov (Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of RAS, RF, Moscow), D.V. Samorodkin (Association the Constant LLC, RF, Moscow)

Key words: residual resources, risks of damages, dynamic model of deterioration and ageing.

Procedure of an estimation of a residual resource of operation of the equipment of the industrial object, providing a minimum of the sum of the resulted specific operational expenses and risks of damages from probable failures is considered. For the decision of a task the dynamic model of deterioration and ageing of the equipment is under construction on the basis of logic settlement circuits of risks. Estimations can serve as additional information support for the persons accepting the decision according to directive documents of the Russian Federation.

References
1. RD 03-14-2005. Poryadok oformleniya deklaratsii promyshlennoy bezopasnosti opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektov i perechen' vklyuchaemykh v nee svedeniy (The procedure for registration of the declaration of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities and the list of included information), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2006.
2. RD 03-418-01.Metodicheskie ukazaniya po provedeniyu analiza riska opasnykh promyshlennykh ob"ektov (Guidelines for risk analysis of hazardous industrial facilities), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
3. RD 03-409-01. Metodika otsenki posledstviy avariynykh vzryvov toplivnovozdushnykh smesey (Methods of assessing the effects of accidental explosions of fuel-air mixtures), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
4. RD 03-496-02. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke ushcherba ot
avariy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektakh (Guidelines for the assessment of damage against accidents at hazardous production
facilities),Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
5. Livanov Yu.V., Samorodkin D.V., Samorodkin V.D., Zlotov A.V., Development of methodology for the analysis of industrial safety for construction facilities and operation of oil and gas wells (In Russ.), Upravlenie kachestvom v neftegazovom komplekse, 2006, no. 4, pp. 48–53.
6. Church A., Introduction to mathematical logic, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1956.
7. RD 03-484-02. Polozhenie o poryadke prodleniya sroka bezopasnoy ekspluatatsii tekhnicheskikh ustroystv, oborudovaniya i sooruzheniy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektakh (Regulations on the procedure of extending the safe operation of technical devices, equipment and facilities at hazardous production facilities), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2003.
8. RD 26.260.004-91. Metodicheskie ukazaniya. Prognozirovanie ostatochnogo resursa oborudovaniya po izmeneniyu parametrov ego tekhnicheskogo sostoyaniya pri ekspluatatsii (Methodical instructions. Prediction of residual life of the equipment to change the parameters of its technical condition in the operation), Moscow: Publ. of Khimmash, 1992.  

Key words: residual resources, risks of damages, dynamic model of deterioration and ageing.

Procedure of an estimation of a residual resource of operation of the equipment of the industrial object, providing a minimum of the sum of the resulted specific operational expenses and risks of damages from probable failures is considered. For the decision of a task the dynamic model of deterioration and ageing of the equipment is under construction on the basis of logic settlement circuits of risks. Estimations can serve as additional information support for the persons accepting the decision according to directive documents of the Russian Federation.

References
1. RD 03-14-2005. Poryadok oformleniya deklaratsii promyshlennoy bezopasnosti opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektov i perechen' vklyuchaemykh v nee svedeniy (The procedure for registration of the declaration of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities and the list of included information), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2006.
2. RD 03-418-01.Metodicheskie ukazaniya po provedeniyu analiza riska opasnykh promyshlennykh ob"ektov (Guidelines for risk analysis of hazardous industrial facilities), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
3. RD 03-409-01. Metodika otsenki posledstviy avariynykh vzryvov toplivnovozdushnykh smesey (Methods of assessing the effects of accidental explosions of fuel-air mixtures), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
4. RD 03-496-02. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke ushcherba ot
avariy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektakh (Guidelines for the assessment of damage against accidents at hazardous production
facilities),Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2002.
5. Livanov Yu.V., Samorodkin D.V., Samorodkin V.D., Zlotov A.V., Development of methodology for the analysis of industrial safety for construction facilities and operation of oil and gas wells (In Russ.), Upravlenie kachestvom v neftegazovom komplekse, 2006, no. 4, pp. 48–53.
6. Church A., Introduction to mathematical logic, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1956.
7. RD 03-484-02. Polozhenie o poryadke prodleniya sroka bezopasnoy ekspluatatsii tekhnicheskikh ustroystv, oborudovaniya i sooruzheniy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob"ektakh (Regulations on the procedure of extending the safe operation of technical devices, equipment and facilities at hazardous production facilities), Moscow: Publ. of FGUP NTO Promyshlennaya bezopasnost', 2003.
8. RD 26.260.004-91. Metodicheskie ukazaniya. Prognozirovanie ostatochnogo resursa oborudovaniya po izmeneniyu parametrov ego tekhnicheskogo sostoyaniya pri ekspluatatsii (Methodical instructions. Prediction of residual life of the equipment to change the parameters of its technical condition in the operation), Moscow: Publ. of Khimmash, 1992.  


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