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Forecasting discoveries of hydrocarbon deposits in North Sakhalin petroleum region based on statistical analysis

UDK: 550.812.12
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2019-5-44-47
Key words: North Sakhalin petroleum region, prediction of deposits, petroleum potential, geological exploration, statistical analysis, Nutovo horizon
Authors: R.N. Gainanshin (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), E.N. Zhukovskaya (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), M.V. Snachev (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg)

The petroleum potential of any region is determined in term of the amount of it is proven hydrocarbon reserves, and the potential resources of undiscovered traps. The purpose of exploration is the discovery of the field. Further exploration work is aimed at the highest possibility of obtaining good quality data with minimum cost and time. The economic model is reflecting the creation of the conceptual geological model, as well as the optimal development scheme and arrangement for the field, via forming a conclusion about the feasibility of large investments. During the assessment stage of the prospective site, a statistical method can be a very useful tool for analyzing, which makes possibility to predict and evaluate the probability of geological discovery, in term of the size and quality. The more expensive the construction of exploration well, the higher the responsibility in the decision-making process and a clear example of this fact is the hydrocarbon exploration on the shelf. Every year the number of discoveries of large fields decreases, and this lead to increase the demand of the analyses of the residual targets. In this article, the authors suggest taking in to consideration the analysis of the influence of the quality and quantity of geological and geophysical information on the dynamic of field discoveries and the identification of hydrocarbon reserves of the North Sakhalin petroleum region. Within the considered territory (Sakhalin island shelf) in 2017-2018 by the company Gazprom Neft on the Ayashsky license area two large Neptune and Triton oil fields were discovered with STOIIP of 415 and 137 million tons respectively. These finds prompted the authors to conduct a retrospective analysis and try to predict the possible distribution of prospecting deposits.

References

1. Kharakhinov V.V., Neftegazovaya geologiya Sakhalinskogo regiona (Petroleum geology of the Sakhalin region), Moscow: Nauchnyy mir Publ., 2010, 276 p.

2. Rose P.R., Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures, AAPG, 2012.

3. Semikhodskiy G.E., Timoshin Yu.V., Prediction of gas content in the Dnieper-Donets Basin based on statistical data (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1982, no. 7, pp. 8–35.

4. Radchikova A.M., Forecast of the projected part of the gas potential of the northern regions of the West Siberian megaprovince (land) (In Russ.), Nauchno-tekhnicheskogo sbornika “Vesti gazovoy nauki”, 2010, no, 2(5), pp. 22–27.

5. Podol'skiy Yu.V., Avsievich A.I., Lebedeva L.V., Evaluation of total initial hydrocarbon resources of the Timan-Pechora province using simulation modeling method (In Russ.), Neftegazovaya geologiya. Teoriya i praktika, 2012, V. 7, no. 3.

The petroleum potential of any region is determined in term of the amount of it is proven hydrocarbon reserves, and the potential resources of undiscovered traps. The purpose of exploration is the discovery of the field. Further exploration work is aimed at the highest possibility of obtaining good quality data with minimum cost and time. The economic model is reflecting the creation of the conceptual geological model, as well as the optimal development scheme and arrangement for the field, via forming a conclusion about the feasibility of large investments. During the assessment stage of the prospective site, a statistical method can be a very useful tool for analyzing, which makes possibility to predict and evaluate the probability of geological discovery, in term of the size and quality. The more expensive the construction of exploration well, the higher the responsibility in the decision-making process and a clear example of this fact is the hydrocarbon exploration on the shelf. Every year the number of discoveries of large fields decreases, and this lead to increase the demand of the analyses of the residual targets. In this article, the authors suggest taking in to consideration the analysis of the influence of the quality and quantity of geological and geophysical information on the dynamic of field discoveries and the identification of hydrocarbon reserves of the North Sakhalin petroleum region. Within the considered territory (Sakhalin island shelf) in 2017-2018 by the company Gazprom Neft on the Ayashsky license area two large Neptune and Triton oil fields were discovered with STOIIP of 415 and 137 million tons respectively. These finds prompted the authors to conduct a retrospective analysis and try to predict the possible distribution of prospecting deposits.

References

1. Kharakhinov V.V., Neftegazovaya geologiya Sakhalinskogo regiona (Petroleum geology of the Sakhalin region), Moscow: Nauchnyy mir Publ., 2010, 276 p.

2. Rose P.R., Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures, AAPG, 2012.

3. Semikhodskiy G.E., Timoshin Yu.V., Prediction of gas content in the Dnieper-Donets Basin based on statistical data (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1982, no. 7, pp. 8–35.

4. Radchikova A.M., Forecast of the projected part of the gas potential of the northern regions of the West Siberian megaprovince (land) (In Russ.), Nauchno-tekhnicheskogo sbornika “Vesti gazovoy nauki”, 2010, no, 2(5), pp. 22–27.

5. Podol'skiy Yu.V., Avsievich A.I., Lebedeva L.V., Evaluation of total initial hydrocarbon resources of the Timan-Pechora province using simulation modeling method (In Russ.), Neftegazovaya geologiya. Teoriya i praktika, 2012, V. 7, no. 3.


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