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Estimation of geological risks in searching and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits

UDK: 550.81
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-8-36-41
Key words: geological risks, shelf, modeling, analysis, the accumulation of hydrocarbon, geological exploration
Authors: V.Yu. Kerimov, A.V. Bondarev, R.N. Mustaev (Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University), RF, Moscow), V.N. Khoshtaria (Gazprom Geologorazvedka LLC, RF, Tyumen)

The article is devoted to the assessment of geological risks in prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits. Increasing the efficiency of geological exploration at different stages is associated with the improvement of accounting methods and minimization of geological risks. This requires the analysis of hydrocarbon systems and their elements - source rocks, reservoir rocks, seal rocks, traps, as well as dynamic processes - generation, migration and accumulation of hydrocarbons. In the article, the methodology for assessing geological risks has been tested for geological prospecting in the water area of the north-eastern part of the Sakhalin shelf. To assess the risk models for the regional model of the structure and evolution of the Cenozoic cover of the north-eastern part of the In-Sakhalin shelf 80 regional three-dimensional models were created and analyzed, and for Kirinsky, Ayashsky and East Odoptu sections - 50 risk models. Tornado diagrams were used to evaluate and analyze the results of risk modeling. In order to assess the risks by the Chevron method, geological risk maps were plotted on the license area of the Sakhalin shelf and a scheme for the distribution of perspective objects identified by interpretation of seismic data, determining the quality of reservoirs and spreading the fluid-bearing strata. According to the results of modeling, six large independent centers of oil and gas generation are distinguished: Chayvinsky, Veninsky, Kirinsky, Pogranichny, Piltun-Astakhovsky, Deriuginsky. To build the final maps of geological risks on license areas of the Sakhalin shelf and assign risk coefficients to perspective objects, models and schemes of hydrocarbon systems were used. The results of the analysis showed that all design wells have low risks.

References

1. Kerimov V.Y., Osipov A.V., Mustaev R.N., Monakova A.S., Modeling of petroleum systems in regions with complex geological structure, Proceedings of 16th Science and Applied Research Conference on Oil and Gas Geological Exploration and Development, GEOMODEL 2014.

2. Bogoyavlenskiy V.I., Kerimov V.Yu., Ol’khovskaya O.O., Dangerous gas-saturated objects in the world ocean: the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 6, pp. 43–47.

3. Kerimov V.Yu., Senin B.V., Bogoyavlenskiy V.I., Shilov G.Ya., Geologiya, poiski i razvedka mestorozhdeniy uglevodorodov na akvatoriyakh Mirovogo okeana (Geology, prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits in the waters of the World Ocean), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 2016, 410 p.

4. Kerimov V.Yu., Bondarev A.V., Sizikov E.A. et al., The conditions of formation and evolution of hydrocarbon systems in Sakhalin shelf, the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 8, pp. 22–27.

5. Kerimov V.Yu., Gorbunov A.A., Lavrenova E.A., Osipov A.V., Models of hydrocarbon systems in the Russian Platform–Ural junction zone (In Russ.), Litologiya i poleznye iskopaemye = Lithology and Mineral Resources, 2015, no. 5, pp. 445–458.

6. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S. et al., The shale hydrocarbons prospects in the low permeability Khadum formation of the Pre-Caucasus (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 10, pp. 50–53.

7. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Senin B.V., Lavrenova E.A., Basin modeling tasks at different stages of geological exploration (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 4, pp. 26–29.

8. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Serikova U.S. et al., Hydrocarbon generation-accumulative system on the territory of Crimea Peninsula and adjacent Azov and Black Seas (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 3, pp. 56–60.

9. Kerimov V.Yu., Serikova U.S., Mustaev R.N., Guliev I.S., Deep oil-and-gas content of South Caspian Basin (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2014, no. 5, pp. 50–54.

10. Kerimov V.Yu., Shilov G.Ya., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S., Thermobaric conditions of hydrocarbons accumulations formation in the low-permeability oil reservoirs of Khadum suite of the Pre-Caucasus (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 2, pp. 8–11.

11. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Bondarev A.V., Evaluation of the organic carbon content in the  low-permeability shale formations (as in the case of the Khadum suite in the Ciscaucasia Region), Oriental Journal of Chemistry, 2016, V. 32, no. 6, pp. 3235–3241.

12. Rachinsky M.Z., Kerimov V.Y., Fluid dynamics of oil and gas reservoirs,  Scrivener Publishing Wiley, 2015.

13. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Yandarbiev N.Sh., Movsumzade E.M., Environment for the formation of shale oil and gas accumulations in low-permeability sequences of the Maikop series, Fore-Caucasus, Oriental Journal of Chemistry, 2017, V. 33, no. 2, pp. 879-892.

14. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S., Zaytsev V.A., Evaluation of secondary filtration parameters of low-permeability shale strata of the Maikop series of Central and Eastern Ciscaucasia by the results of geomechanics modeling (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 9, pp. 18-21.

15. Kerimov V.Yu., Lapidus A.L., Yandarbiev N.Sh., Physicochemical properties of shale strata in the Maikop series of Ciscaucasia (In Russ.), Khimiya tverdogo topliva = Solid Fuel Chemistry, 2017, no. 2, pp. 58–66.

16. Koblov E.G., Kharakhinov A.V., Tkacheva N.A., Neftegazovyy potentsial i perspektivnye neftegazopoiskovye ob»ekty pribrezhnoy zony shel’fa Severnogo Sakhalina (Oil and Gas Potential and Prospective Oil and Gas Exploration Objects of the Coastal Zone of the North Sakhalin Shelf), Collected papers “Geologicheskie problemy razvitiya uglevodorodnoy i syr’evoy bazy Dal’nego Vostoka i Sibiri” (Geological problems of the development of the hydrocarbon and raw materials base of the Far East and Siberia), St. Petersburg: Nedra Publ., 2006, pp. 83–88.

17. Obzhirov A.I., Gas hydrates and methane streams in the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Morskie informatsionno-upravlyayushchie sistemy, 2013, no. 1(2), pp. 56–65.

18. Guliev I.S., Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Fundamental challenges of the location of oil and gas in the South Caspian Basin (In Russ.), Doklady Akademii nauk = Doklady Earth Sciences, 2016, V. 471, no. 1, pp. 62-65.

19. Kerimov V.Yu, Rachinsky M.Z., Geofluid dynamic concept of hydrocarbon accumulation in natural reservoirs (In Russ.), Doklady Akademii nauk = Doklady Earth Sciences, 2016, V. 471, no. 2, pp.  187-190.

The article is devoted to the assessment of geological risks in prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits. Increasing the efficiency of geological exploration at different stages is associated with the improvement of accounting methods and minimization of geological risks. This requires the analysis of hydrocarbon systems and their elements - source rocks, reservoir rocks, seal rocks, traps, as well as dynamic processes - generation, migration and accumulation of hydrocarbons. In the article, the methodology for assessing geological risks has been tested for geological prospecting in the water area of the north-eastern part of the Sakhalin shelf. To assess the risk models for the regional model of the structure and evolution of the Cenozoic cover of the north-eastern part of the In-Sakhalin shelf 80 regional three-dimensional models were created and analyzed, and for Kirinsky, Ayashsky and East Odoptu sections - 50 risk models. Tornado diagrams were used to evaluate and analyze the results of risk modeling. In order to assess the risks by the Chevron method, geological risk maps were plotted on the license area of the Sakhalin shelf and a scheme for the distribution of perspective objects identified by interpretation of seismic data, determining the quality of reservoirs and spreading the fluid-bearing strata. According to the results of modeling, six large independent centers of oil and gas generation are distinguished: Chayvinsky, Veninsky, Kirinsky, Pogranichny, Piltun-Astakhovsky, Deriuginsky. To build the final maps of geological risks on license areas of the Sakhalin shelf and assign risk coefficients to perspective objects, models and schemes of hydrocarbon systems were used. The results of the analysis showed that all design wells have low risks.

References

1. Kerimov V.Y., Osipov A.V., Mustaev R.N., Monakova A.S., Modeling of petroleum systems in regions with complex geological structure, Proceedings of 16th Science and Applied Research Conference on Oil and Gas Geological Exploration and Development, GEOMODEL 2014.

2. Bogoyavlenskiy V.I., Kerimov V.Yu., Ol’khovskaya O.O., Dangerous gas-saturated objects in the world ocean: the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 6, pp. 43–47.

3. Kerimov V.Yu., Senin B.V., Bogoyavlenskiy V.I., Shilov G.Ya., Geologiya, poiski i razvedka mestorozhdeniy uglevodorodov na akvatoriyakh Mirovogo okeana (Geology, prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits in the waters of the World Ocean), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 2016, 410 p.

4. Kerimov V.Yu., Bondarev A.V., Sizikov E.A. et al., The conditions of formation and evolution of hydrocarbon systems in Sakhalin shelf, the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 8, pp. 22–27.

5. Kerimov V.Yu., Gorbunov A.A., Lavrenova E.A., Osipov A.V., Models of hydrocarbon systems in the Russian Platform–Ural junction zone (In Russ.), Litologiya i poleznye iskopaemye = Lithology and Mineral Resources, 2015, no. 5, pp. 445–458.

6. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S. et al., The shale hydrocarbons prospects in the low permeability Khadum formation of the Pre-Caucasus (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 10, pp. 50–53.

7. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Senin B.V., Lavrenova E.A., Basin modeling tasks at different stages of geological exploration (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 4, pp. 26–29.

8. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Serikova U.S. et al., Hydrocarbon generation-accumulative system on the territory of Crimea Peninsula and adjacent Azov and Black Seas (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no. 3, pp. 56–60.

9. Kerimov V.Yu., Serikova U.S., Mustaev R.N., Guliev I.S., Deep oil-and-gas content of South Caspian Basin (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2014, no. 5, pp. 50–54.

10. Kerimov V.Yu., Shilov G.Ya., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S., Thermobaric conditions of hydrocarbons accumulations formation in the low-permeability oil reservoirs of Khadum suite of the Pre-Caucasus (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 2, pp. 8–11.

11. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Bondarev A.V., Evaluation of the organic carbon content in the  low-permeability shale formations (as in the case of the Khadum suite in the Ciscaucasia Region), Oriental Journal of Chemistry, 2016, V. 32, no. 6, pp. 3235–3241.

12. Rachinsky M.Z., Kerimov V.Y., Fluid dynamics of oil and gas reservoirs,  Scrivener Publishing Wiley, 2015.

13. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Yandarbiev N.Sh., Movsumzade E.M., Environment for the formation of shale oil and gas accumulations in low-permeability sequences of the Maikop series, Fore-Caucasus, Oriental Journal of Chemistry, 2017, V. 33, no. 2, pp. 879-892.

14. Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Dmitrievskiy S.S., Zaytsev V.A., Evaluation of secondary filtration parameters of low-permeability shale strata of the Maikop series of Central and Eastern Ciscaucasia by the results of geomechanics modeling (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 9, pp. 18-21.

15. Kerimov V.Yu., Lapidus A.L., Yandarbiev N.Sh., Physicochemical properties of shale strata in the Maikop series of Ciscaucasia (In Russ.), Khimiya tverdogo topliva = Solid Fuel Chemistry, 2017, no. 2, pp. 58–66.

16. Koblov E.G., Kharakhinov A.V., Tkacheva N.A., Neftegazovyy potentsial i perspektivnye neftegazopoiskovye ob»ekty pribrezhnoy zony shel’fa Severnogo Sakhalina (Oil and Gas Potential and Prospective Oil and Gas Exploration Objects of the Coastal Zone of the North Sakhalin Shelf), Collected papers “Geologicheskie problemy razvitiya uglevodorodnoy i syr’evoy bazy Dal’nego Vostoka i Sibiri” (Geological problems of the development of the hydrocarbon and raw materials base of the Far East and Siberia), St. Petersburg: Nedra Publ., 2006, pp. 83–88.

17. Obzhirov A.I., Gas hydrates and methane streams in the Sea of Okhotsk (In Russ.), Morskie informatsionno-upravlyayushchie sistemy, 2013, no. 1(2), pp. 56–65.

18. Guliev I.S., Kerimov V.Yu., Mustaev R.N., Fundamental challenges of the location of oil and gas in the South Caspian Basin (In Russ.), Doklady Akademii nauk = Doklady Earth Sciences, 2016, V. 471, no. 1, pp. 62-65.

19. Kerimov V.Yu, Rachinsky M.Z., Geofluid dynamic concept of hydrocarbon accumulation in natural reservoirs (In Russ.), Doklady Akademii nauk = Doklady Earth Sciences, 2016, V. 471, no. 2, pp.  187-190.


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