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On the evolution of world energy forecasts made in 2013/2014 and 2016

UDK: 338.2
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-4-20-25
Key words: prices, forecasts and scenarios, the world economy and energy, world's energy consumption and its structure
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow)

In the article analyzes the forecasts of the world energy development from the leading analytical centers (the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the OPEC Secretariat, the British Petroleum Group, the Institute of Energy Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, etc.), made at high oil prices (2013-2014), and after their fall (2016-2017). It is considered how the very fact of the onset of the period of low oil prices was estimated in the forecasts and how the actual price factor was taken into account in various forecasts. It is shown that the factor of the current period of low prices in forecasts is expressed, first of all, in the short and medium term.

Analyzed the evolution of world primary energy consumption estimates, during the period of high oil prices, and after they have fallen sharply. It was revealed that in the forecasts made in 2016/2017, during the period of low oil prices, global energy consumption projections on the same date is lower than the projections of 2013-2014, and attempted to explain this. Investigated the differences in the forecasts made at different times, associated with the structure of the world's energy consumption, and concluded that they apparently are not so much concerned with the influence as to the extent to which the climatic and environmental constraints, including expectations of the implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate. In general, the analysis of various forecasts shows that the price factor, despite its importance for the current economic activity, on the results of the long-term development of the world energy sector is significantly weaker than one would expect. The reasons for this are not fully understood and require further study.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., The world oil market situation: several estimates and forecasts (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2016, no. 2, pp. 7–20.

2. Mastepanov A.M., About pricing factors the world oil market and the role of shale oil in the process (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 9, pp. 6–10.

3. Mastepanov A.M., Oil low prices – the new prospects of development of the world energy industry (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2017, no. 1, pp. 5–6.

4. Mastepanov A.M., The influence of oil prices on the world oil and gas industry development priorities (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2017, no. 2, pp. 8–12.

5. Energeticheskiy byulleten', 2013, no. 5, URL: http://ac.gov.ru/files/publication/ a/508.pdf

6. URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2013).pdf 

7. URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf

8. URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication//WEO2014.pdf

9. World Energy Outlook 2016,OECD/IEA, 2016, 684 р.

10. URL: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/3049.htm

11. URL: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm

12. URL: https://www.eriras.ru/data/7/rus

13. URL: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html

In the article analyzes the forecasts of the world energy development from the leading analytical centers (the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the OPEC Secretariat, the British Petroleum Group, the Institute of Energy Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, etc.), made at high oil prices (2013-2014), and after their fall (2016-2017). It is considered how the very fact of the onset of the period of low oil prices was estimated in the forecasts and how the actual price factor was taken into account in various forecasts. It is shown that the factor of the current period of low prices in forecasts is expressed, first of all, in the short and medium term.

Analyzed the evolution of world primary energy consumption estimates, during the period of high oil prices, and after they have fallen sharply. It was revealed that in the forecasts made in 2016/2017, during the period of low oil prices, global energy consumption projections on the same date is lower than the projections of 2013-2014, and attempted to explain this. Investigated the differences in the forecasts made at different times, associated with the structure of the world's energy consumption, and concluded that they apparently are not so much concerned with the influence as to the extent to which the climatic and environmental constraints, including expectations of the implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate. In general, the analysis of various forecasts shows that the price factor, despite its importance for the current economic activity, on the results of the long-term development of the world energy sector is significantly weaker than one would expect. The reasons for this are not fully understood and require further study.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., The world oil market situation: several estimates and forecasts (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2016, no. 2, pp. 7–20.

2. Mastepanov A.M., About pricing factors the world oil market and the role of shale oil in the process (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no. 9, pp. 6–10.

3. Mastepanov A.M., Oil low prices – the new prospects of development of the world energy industry (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2017, no. 1, pp. 5–6.

4. Mastepanov A.M., The influence of oil prices on the world oil and gas industry development priorities (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2017, no. 2, pp. 8–12.

5. Energeticheskiy byulleten', 2013, no. 5, URL: http://ac.gov.ru/files/publication/ a/508.pdf

6. URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2013).pdf 

7. URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf

8. URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication//WEO2014.pdf

9. World Energy Outlook 2016,OECD/IEA, 2016, 684 р.

10. URL: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/3049.htm

11. URL: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm

12. URL: https://www.eriras.ru/data/7/rus

13. URL: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html

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