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Prospects of development of the oil industry of Russia in assessments of national and foreign experts (part 2)

Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow)

Key words: oil industry, forecasts, prospect for development, energy strategy, fields in Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, offshore and Arctic, the potential of shale oil, Bazhenov formation, IEA, US Department of Energy.

With its huge energy, including hydrocarbon, potential and occupying an important place in the global energy security, Russia must be ready for those qualitative changes in the global energy system, which are expected in the near future. This commitment is reflected as in the official forecasts of socioeconomic development of Russia, and in the works of scientific research and expert-analytical organizations. The author analyzed the strategic goals, major tasks and benchmarks of the prospective development of the oil industry of Russia, as contained in the official Russian documents, and in the works of research organizations. The article gives the corresponding estimates of leading world analytical centers (IEA, US Department of Energy, BP et al.). Disparities in the estimates and forecasts of the development of oil industry of Russia are shown. Their explanations are given.

References
1. The project “Energeticheskaya strategiya Rossii na period do 2035 goda”
(Russia's Energy Strategy until 2035), Moscow: Russian Ministry of Economic Development, 2014, URL: http://minenergo.gov.ru/upload/iblock/a0c/ a0c4668c84bd0df193ceee4c6f5f4595.pdf
2. Zatraty i vygody nizkouglerodnoy ekonomiki i transformatsii obshchestva v
Rossii. Perspektivy do i posle 2050 goda (Costs and benefits of a low-carbon
economy and the transformation of society in Russia. Perspectives before
and after 2050): edited by Bashmakov I.A., Moscow: TsENEF Publ., 2014, 208 p.
3. Rossiya-2014. Detal'nyy obzor energeticheskoy politiki. Mezhdunarodnogo
energeticheskogo agentstva. Vzglyad iz Rossii (Russia-2014. A detailed review of energy policy. International Energy Agency. View from Russia), REA, Moscow, 2014, 132 p.
4. International Energy Outlook 2011. US Energy Information Administration,
2011, September, 301 p., URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/
0484(2011).pdf.
5. International Energy Outlook 2013. US Energy Information Administration,
2013, July, 312 p., URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2013).pdf.
6. World Energy Outlook 2013. OECD/IEA, 2013, 687 p.
7. Rossiya-2014. Detal'nyy obzor energeticheskoy politiki (Russia-2014. A detailed review of energy policy), OECD/IEA, 2014, 367 p. 

Key words: oil industry, forecasts, prospect for development, energy strategy, fields in Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, offshore and Arctic, the potential of shale oil, Bazhenov formation, IEA, US Department of Energy.

With its huge energy, including hydrocarbon, potential and occupying an important place in the global energy security, Russia must be ready for those qualitative changes in the global energy system, which are expected in the near future. This commitment is reflected as in the official forecasts of socioeconomic development of Russia, and in the works of scientific research and expert-analytical organizations. The author analyzed the strategic goals, major tasks and benchmarks of the prospective development of the oil industry of Russia, as contained in the official Russian documents, and in the works of research organizations. The article gives the corresponding estimates of leading world analytical centers (IEA, US Department of Energy, BP et al.). Disparities in the estimates and forecasts of the development of oil industry of Russia are shown. Their explanations are given.

References
1. The project “Energeticheskaya strategiya Rossii na period do 2035 goda”
(Russia's Energy Strategy until 2035), Moscow: Russian Ministry of Economic Development, 2014, URL: http://minenergo.gov.ru/upload/iblock/a0c/ a0c4668c84bd0df193ceee4c6f5f4595.pdf
2. Zatraty i vygody nizkouglerodnoy ekonomiki i transformatsii obshchestva v
Rossii. Perspektivy do i posle 2050 goda (Costs and benefits of a low-carbon
economy and the transformation of society in Russia. Perspectives before
and after 2050): edited by Bashmakov I.A., Moscow: TsENEF Publ., 2014, 208 p.
3. Rossiya-2014. Detal'nyy obzor energeticheskoy politiki. Mezhdunarodnogo
energeticheskogo agentstva. Vzglyad iz Rossii (Russia-2014. A detailed review of energy policy. International Energy Agency. View from Russia), REA, Moscow, 2014, 132 p.
4. International Energy Outlook 2011. US Energy Information Administration,
2011, September, 301 p., URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/
0484(2011).pdf.
5. International Energy Outlook 2013. US Energy Information Administration,
2013, July, 312 p., URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2013).pdf.
6. World Energy Outlook 2013. OECD/IEA, 2013, 687 p.
7. Rossiya-2014. Detal'nyy obzor energeticheskoy politiki (Russia-2014. A detailed review of energy policy), OECD/IEA, 2014, 367 p. 


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