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Prediction of hydrocarbon deposit physical and geological commercial parameters under conditions of data uncertainty

Authors: A.I. Kobrunov, V.E. Kuleshov, A.S. Mogutov, A.N. Dorogobed (Ukhta State Technical University, RF Ukhta)

Key words: indefiniteness, modeling, dependent, data

The article covers the issues of uncertainties that occur in the forecasting of commercial physical and geological parameters processes. It describes basic steps of the indistinct petrophysical compositions method developed by the authors. According to an exemplary hydrocarbon field development, an implementation and application results are shown, including an assessment of the uncertainty of three-dimensional geological and geophysical models.
References
1. Mamdani E.H., Application of fuzzy algorithms for control of simple dynamic
plant, Electrical Engineers, Proceedings of the IEE, 1974, no. 121(12),
pp. 1585-1588.
2. Zadeh L.A., Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 1965, V. 8, no. 3,
pp. 338-353.
3. Zhabreev I.P., Khurgin Ya.I., Geologiya nefti i gaza – The journal Oil and Gas
Geology, 1993, no. 11, pp. 37–40.
4. Eremin N.A., Modelirovanie mestorozhdeniy metodami nechetkoy logiki
(Field modeling using fuzzy logic methods), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1994,
462 p.
5. Zolotukhin A.B., Proceedings of 5th International Conference “Novye idei v
geologii i geokhimii nefti i gaza” (New ideas in geology and geochemistry of
oil and gas), Part 1, Moscow: Publ. of MSU, 2001, pp. 151-153.
6. Kobrunov A.I., Kuleshov V.E., Mogutov A.S., Khudozhilova A.N., Vestnik Instituta geologii Komi nauchnogo tsentra UrO RAN, 2011, no. 9, pp. 18-23.
7. Mogutov A.S., Kobrunov A.I., Kuleshov V.E., Neftegazovaya geologiya.
Teoriya i praktika – Petroleum Geology – Theoretical and Applied Studies,
2012, V. 7, no. 1, pp. 1-11, URL: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/8/17_2012.pdf.

Key words: indefiniteness, modeling, dependent, data

The article covers the issues of uncertainties that occur in the forecasting of commercial physical and geological parameters processes. It describes basic steps of the indistinct petrophysical compositions method developed by the authors. According to an exemplary hydrocarbon field development, an implementation and application results are shown, including an assessment of the uncertainty of three-dimensional geological and geophysical models.
References
1. Mamdani E.H., Application of fuzzy algorithms for control of simple dynamic
plant, Electrical Engineers, Proceedings of the IEE, 1974, no. 121(12),
pp. 1585-1588.
2. Zadeh L.A., Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 1965, V. 8, no. 3,
pp. 338-353.
3. Zhabreev I.P., Khurgin Ya.I., Geologiya nefti i gaza – The journal Oil and Gas
Geology, 1993, no. 11, pp. 37–40.
4. Eremin N.A., Modelirovanie mestorozhdeniy metodami nechetkoy logiki
(Field modeling using fuzzy logic methods), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1994,
462 p.
5. Zolotukhin A.B., Proceedings of 5th International Conference “Novye idei v
geologii i geokhimii nefti i gaza” (New ideas in geology and geochemistry of
oil and gas), Part 1, Moscow: Publ. of MSU, 2001, pp. 151-153.
6. Kobrunov A.I., Kuleshov V.E., Mogutov A.S., Khudozhilova A.N., Vestnik Instituta geologii Komi nauchnogo tsentra UrO RAN, 2011, no. 9, pp. 18-23.
7. Mogutov A.S., Kobrunov A.I., Kuleshov V.E., Neftegazovaya geologiya.
Teoriya i praktika – Petroleum Geology – Theoretical and Applied Studies,
2012, V. 7, no. 1, pp. 1-11, URL: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/8/17_2012.pdf.


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