Integrated approach to the construction of agreed scenarios of world oil production, consumption and price

UDK: 338.23:622.276

Key words: system of models, scenario forecasting, oil price, world oil market, shale oil

Authors: M.N. Uzyakov, A.A.Yantovskiy (Rosneft Oil Company PJSC, RF, Moscow), M. Yu. Ksenofontov, V.V. Semikashev, A.Yu. Kolpakov (RAS, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RF, Moscow)

The article describes the evolution of the pricing mechanisms on the world oil market. Modification of the pricing principles at the present stage is associated with the appearance of US shale oil as a factor of world oil supply flexibility increase. This leads to greater impact of the physical oil production-consumption balance on world oil price. We describe conceptually the world energy block in developed Rosneft Oil Company PJSC analysis and modeling system for World and Russian economy and energy sectors description in part of construction of world oil market development scenarios, taking into account the changes of few recent years. Then we demonstrate the practical use of developed system on the example of construction of agreed world oil production, consumption and price scenarios, interrelated with perspective parameters of the world economy and energy sector. The conditions and parameters of relatively high and low world oil prices scenarios are described. The first scenario involves deepening global economic integration, the acceleration of global technological progress, increasing role of carbon-free energy sources in the world energy balance, continuing high GDP and motorization rate growth in developing countries. The second scenario considers the concept of weakening global economic relations, return of capital to developed countries and their reindustrialization. The emphasis of economic growth and technological progress is shifting in favor of the developed countries. Increase of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids fleet, especially in developed countries, may become an important factor in deterring global oil consumption growth in both scenarios. The possible changes in the country structure of world oil supply balance are considered. In the scenario of relatively low oil prices OPEC's share in the global oil market significantly increases.
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