Estimation of quality of stocks on the basis of geological uncertainty analisis

Authors: M.A. Grishchenko, E.B. Avramenko, A.E. Lytkin (TNNC LLC)
Existence of geological uncertainties is one of the basic risk factors for disconfirmation of approved hydrocarbon reserves. Nevertheless, there is no unique solution for the problem of accounting geological uncertainties. This article describes the analysis of major uncertainties and methodology for its accounting using three potential scientific directions:  expert, deterministic and stochastic and also the validation of calculations on Samotlor deposit case study.
Existence of geological uncertainties is one of the basic risk factors for disconfirmation of approved hydrocarbon reserves. Nevertheless, there is no unique solution for the problem of accounting geological uncertainties. This article describes the analysis of major uncertainties and methodology for its accounting using three potential scientific directions:  expert, deterministic and stochastic and also the validation of calculations on Samotlor deposit case study.


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