Oil global geological resources and reserves assessment: myth and reality

UDK: 553.98.048
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2021-10-14-18
Key words: conventional oil, transitional oil, unconventional oils, geological resources, reserves, hydrocarbon genesis, reserves-to-production ratio
Authors: V.G. Kutcherov (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow), V.V. Bessel (Gubkin University, RF, Moscow; NewTech Services LLC, RF, Moscow)

Despite of the fact that over the past 20 years, from 2001 to 2020, the share of oil in the global energy balance has decreased by 7,6 % and became 30,1 % in 2020, oil is still the main energy resource in the global energy sector. More than 95 % of oil is currently used for the production of fuels and lubricants, as well as for a wide range of oil refining and petrochemical products, and only slightly more than 5 % is used in the centralized power generation system. Nevertheless, a number of experts predict an imminent significant decrease in oil share in the world energy balance, basing their judgments on limited oil reserves and the expected imminent transfer of all modes of transport to other sources of energy (electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, etc.).

The carried out by the authors analysis of data on geological resources and reserves of traditional, transitional and unconventional types of oils allows to say that when using existing and promising technologies for field development oil production can last more than 120 years. Moreover, modern scientific ideas about the genesis of hydrocarbons allow to speak about the huge, practically inexhaustible reserves of hydrocarbons presence in the bowels of the Earth, the availability of which will depend on the innovative technical and technological solutions development for their search and development, as well as on the investment attractiveness of their production in industrial scale. Expectations of the energy transition may be delayed due to obvious scientific and technical problems associated with the search for new types of global energy, therefore, hydrocarbons and in particular oil may be in demand for a very long time.

 References

1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, July 2021, URL: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.

2. Martynov V.G., Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G. et al., Prirodnyy gaz – osnova ustoychivogo razvitiya mirovoy energetiki (Natural gas is the basis for sustainable development of the world energy), Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin University, 2021, 173 p.

3. Order of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation No. 477 dated 01.11. 13. Ob utverzhdenii Klassifikatsii zapasov i resursov nefti i goryuchikh gazov (On approval of the Classification of reserves and resources of oil and combustible gases), URL: https://docs.cntd.ru/ document/499058008.

4.  Postuglevodorodnaya ekonomika: voprosy perekhoda (Post-hydrocarbon economy: transition issues): edited by Telegina E.A., Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2017, 406 p.

5. Shell Global Energy Resources database, URL: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/ scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/energy-resource-database.html#iframe=L3dlYmFwcHMvRW5lcmd5UmVzb3VyY2VEYXRhYmFzZS8jb3Blbk1vZGFs

6. Meyer R.F., Attanasi E.D., Freeman P.A., Heavy oil and natural bitumen resources in geological basins of the world: U.S., Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2007, V. 1084, 36 p.

7. Kutcherov V., Krayushkin V., The deep-seated abiogenic origin of petroleum: from geological assessment to physical theory, Review of Geophysics, 2010, V. 48, RG1001, DOI:10.1029/2008RG000270.

8. EIA/ARI World shale gas and shale oil resource assessment technically recoverable shale gas and shale oil resources: An assessment of 137 shale formations in 41 countries outside the United States, URL: https://www.adv-res.com/pdf/A_EIA_ARI_2013%20.World%20Shale%20Gas%20and%20Shale%20Oil%20Resource%20A....

9. Dyni J.R., Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits, Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5294; U.S. Geological Survey: 2006, URL: https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/ 5294 /pdf/sir5294_508.pdf.

10.  Panchenko I.V., Nemova V.D., Smirnova M.E. et al., Stratification and detailed correlation of Bazhenov horizon in the central part of the Western Siberia according to lithological and paleontological core analysis and well logging (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2016, no. 6, pp. 22–34.

11. Kucherov V.G., Bessel' V.V., Challenges and risks of deep and super deep drilling (In Russ.), Burenie i neft', 2020, no. 3, pp. 12–16.

12. Bata T., Schamel S., Fusti M., Ibatulin R., AAPG EMD bitumen and heavy oil committee commodity report, 2017, 56 p, file:///C:/Users/vku/Downloads/2017-04-01-EMD-AnnualMeetingCommitteeBitumen%20(1).pdf

13. World Energy Outlook, 2015, URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5a314029-69c2-42a9-98ac-d1c5deeb59b3/WEO2015.pdf.

14. Kolesnikov A.Yu., Saul J.M., Kutcherov V.G., Chemistry of hydrocarbons under extreme thermobaric conditions, ChemistrySelect, 2017, V. 2(4), pp. 1336–1352, DOI:10.1002/slct.201601123

15. Krayushkin V.A., Kucherov V.G., Klochko V.P., Gozhik P.F., Inorganic origin of petroleum: from geological toward physical theory (In Russ.), Geologicheskiy zhurnal, 2005, V. 2, pp. 35–43.

Despite of the fact that over the past 20 years, from 2001 to 2020, the share of oil in the global energy balance has decreased by 7,6 % and became 30,1 % in 2020, oil is still the main energy resource in the global energy sector. More than 95 % of oil is currently used for the production of fuels and lubricants, as well as for a wide range of oil refining and petrochemical products, and only slightly more than 5 % is used in the centralized power generation system. Nevertheless, a number of experts predict an imminent significant decrease in oil share in the world energy balance, basing their judgments on limited oil reserves and the expected imminent transfer of all modes of transport to other sources of energy (electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, etc.).

The carried out by the authors analysis of data on geological resources and reserves of traditional, transitional and unconventional types of oils allows to say that when using existing and promising technologies for field development oil production can last more than 120 years. Moreover, modern scientific ideas about the genesis of hydrocarbons allow to speak about the huge, practically inexhaustible reserves of hydrocarbons presence in the bowels of the Earth, the availability of which will depend on the innovative technical and technological solutions development for their search and development, as well as on the investment attractiveness of their production in industrial scale. Expectations of the energy transition may be delayed due to obvious scientific and technical problems associated with the search for new types of global energy, therefore, hydrocarbons and in particular oil may be in demand for a very long time.

 References

1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, July 2021, URL: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.

2. Martynov V.G., Bessel' V.V., Kucherov V.G. et al., Prirodnyy gaz – osnova ustoychivogo razvitiya mirovoy energetiki (Natural gas is the basis for sustainable development of the world energy), Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin University, 2021, 173 p.

3. Order of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation No. 477 dated 01.11. 13. Ob utverzhdenii Klassifikatsii zapasov i resursov nefti i goryuchikh gazov (On approval of the Classification of reserves and resources of oil and combustible gases), URL: https://docs.cntd.ru/ document/499058008.

4.  Postuglevodorodnaya ekonomika: voprosy perekhoda (Post-hydrocarbon economy: transition issues): edited by Telegina E.A., Moscow: Publ. of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, 2017, 406 p.

5. Shell Global Energy Resources database, URL: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/ scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/energy-resource-database.html#iframe=L3dlYmFwcHMvRW5lcmd5UmVzb3VyY2VEYXRhYmFzZS8jb3Blbk1vZGFs

6. Meyer R.F., Attanasi E.D., Freeman P.A., Heavy oil and natural bitumen resources in geological basins of the world: U.S., Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2007, V. 1084, 36 p.

7. Kutcherov V., Krayushkin V., The deep-seated abiogenic origin of petroleum: from geological assessment to physical theory, Review of Geophysics, 2010, V. 48, RG1001, DOI:10.1029/2008RG000270.

8. EIA/ARI World shale gas and shale oil resource assessment technically recoverable shale gas and shale oil resources: An assessment of 137 shale formations in 41 countries outside the United States, URL: https://www.adv-res.com/pdf/A_EIA_ARI_2013%20.World%20Shale%20Gas%20and%20Shale%20Oil%20Resource%20A....

9. Dyni J.R., Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits, Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5294; U.S. Geological Survey: 2006, URL: https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/ 5294 /pdf/sir5294_508.pdf.

10.  Panchenko I.V., Nemova V.D., Smirnova M.E. et al., Stratification and detailed correlation of Bazhenov horizon in the central part of the Western Siberia according to lithological and paleontological core analysis and well logging (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2016, no. 6, pp. 22–34.

11. Kucherov V.G., Bessel' V.V., Challenges and risks of deep and super deep drilling (In Russ.), Burenie i neft', 2020, no. 3, pp. 12–16.

12. Bata T., Schamel S., Fusti M., Ibatulin R., AAPG EMD bitumen and heavy oil committee commodity report, 2017, 56 p, file:///C:/Users/vku/Downloads/2017-04-01-EMD-AnnualMeetingCommitteeBitumen%20(1).pdf

13. World Energy Outlook, 2015, URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5a314029-69c2-42a9-98ac-d1c5deeb59b3/WEO2015.pdf.

14. Kolesnikov A.Yu., Saul J.M., Kutcherov V.G., Chemistry of hydrocarbons under extreme thermobaric conditions, ChemistrySelect, 2017, V. 2(4), pp. 1336–1352, DOI:10.1002/slct.201601123

15. Krayushkin V.A., Kucherov V.G., Klochko V.P., Gozhik P.F., Inorganic origin of petroleum: from geological toward physical theory (In Russ.), Geologicheskiy zhurnal, 2005, V. 2, pp. 35–43.



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