The world economy and its oil sector in 2020–2021: some forecasts and expected development results

UDK: 338.45:622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2021-2-12-17
Key words: forecasts and scenarios, results and estimates, evolution of estimates, the global economy and its oil sector, economic development, energy demand, coronavirus pandemic, oil demand, prices in the world oil market
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow; Institute of Energy Strategy, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The article considers the forecasts and forward-looking estimates of the development of the world economy and its oil sector, including the situation with demand and prices on the world oil market, published by the world's leading analytical and forecasting centers in the run-up to 2020, in comparison with the expected results and preliminary estimates of the actual development of the situation. It is shown that almost from the first months of 2020, events in the world began to unfold according to unforeseen scenarios, and how, in accordance with the developing situation, the forecasts made earlier changed. The author analyzed the evolution of predictions for oil demand in 2020 made by EIA USA and the OPEC Secretariat in the period since December 2019 and January 2021, compared to the end of 2018-2019, and the expected outcome in 2020 (as in the whole world and its main regions and countries). The article gives the latest estimates of the expected results of development of the world economy and its oil sector in 2020, made by experts of the IMF, the OECD, the IEA, the OPEC Secretariat and other organizations, and their projections for 2021 It is shown that the IEA experts, way USA and the OPEC Secretariat almost equally understand the dynamics of expected global oil demand this year. Their adjustment of the forecast estimates for 2021 was generally consistent with the development of the situation on the world oil markets in 2020 and followed the refinement of the estimates for 2020. Accordingly, these estimates do not contain any fundamental changes in the current trends. Their authors assume that in 2021, the world oil markets will continue to face significant uncertainty, both directly related to the coronavirus pandemic and the unresolved problems accumulated over the previous two years in the global economy. It is concluded that based on the specifics of the current transition stage of the development of the world economy and energy, it is necessary to build a domestic system for monitoring and forecasting the world economy and its oil and gas sector.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Oil sector of the global economy in 2020: Forecasts and expected results (In Russ.), Burenie i neft', 2021, no. 1, pp. 33–39.

2. OECD Economic Outlook, 2019, V. 106, no. 2, https://doi.org/10.1787/9b89401b-en

3. OPEC monthly oil market report, URL: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

4. World economic outlook, 2020, January, URL: https://www.imf.org/ru/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020

5. IEA. Oil market report, URL: https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report

6. U.S. Energy information administration. Short-term energy outlook, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php

7. International Energy Outlook 2019. U.S. Energy information administration, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo19/

8. URL: https://ostrovrusa.ru/prognoz-tsen-na-neft#

9. Mastepanov A.M., The world at a break or a new reality: Prospects for the development of the energy industry and its oil and gas sector (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2020, no. 5, pp. 9–10.

10. Mastepanov A.M., Big cycles and “black swans” (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2020, no. 6 (148), pp. 4–19.

11. Mastepanov A.M., Coronavirus and the resulting crisis: About the prospects of the world economy and energy (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2020, no. 6, pp. 6–12.

12. Global Energy Review 2020. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions, IEA, 2020, April, 55 p., URL: https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl= %2fdownload %2fdirect %2f2995

13. OECD Economic Outlook. The World Economy on a Tightrope, 2020, June, URL: http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/

14. OECD Economic Outlook, 2020, V. 108, no. 2, URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/ 39a88ab1-en

15. World Economic Outlook Update, 2020, June, URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020; World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A long and difficult, URL:  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020

16. World Bank, 2021. Global economic prospects, Washington, DC, 2021, January, URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

17. URL: https://www.rbc.ru/society/04/01/2021/5ff35a499a79471f088165­d1?from=newsfeed

18. Kutuzova M., Kovidnyy shtorm i bychiy rynok. Spros i tseny na neft' vosstanovyatsya v 2021 g. (Coronavirus storm and bull market. Oil demand and prices will rebound in 2021.), URL: http://neftianka.ru/kovidnyj-shtorm-i-bychij-rynok-spros-i-ceny-na-neft-vosstanovyatsya-v-2021-g/

19. Davydov D., Vesnoy mirovoy rynok nefti mozhet snova provalit'sya (In the spring, the global oil market may fail again), URL: https://teknoblog.ru/2021/01/10/109660

20. URL: https://www.vazhno.ru/a/66377/20210111/rubl-ruhnet-ozvuchen-sekretnyj-kurs-dollara-na-maj/ab-intext/

The article considers the forecasts and forward-looking estimates of the development of the world economy and its oil sector, including the situation with demand and prices on the world oil market, published by the world's leading analytical and forecasting centers in the run-up to 2020, in comparison with the expected results and preliminary estimates of the actual development of the situation. It is shown that almost from the first months of 2020, events in the world began to unfold according to unforeseen scenarios, and how, in accordance with the developing situation, the forecasts made earlier changed. The author analyzed the evolution of predictions for oil demand in 2020 made by EIA USA and the OPEC Secretariat in the period since December 2019 and January 2021, compared to the end of 2018-2019, and the expected outcome in 2020 (as in the whole world and its main regions and countries). The article gives the latest estimates of the expected results of development of the world economy and its oil sector in 2020, made by experts of the IMF, the OECD, the IEA, the OPEC Secretariat and other organizations, and their projections for 2021 It is shown that the IEA experts, way USA and the OPEC Secretariat almost equally understand the dynamics of expected global oil demand this year. Their adjustment of the forecast estimates for 2021 was generally consistent with the development of the situation on the world oil markets in 2020 and followed the refinement of the estimates for 2020. Accordingly, these estimates do not contain any fundamental changes in the current trends. Their authors assume that in 2021, the world oil markets will continue to face significant uncertainty, both directly related to the coronavirus pandemic and the unresolved problems accumulated over the previous two years in the global economy. It is concluded that based on the specifics of the current transition stage of the development of the world economy and energy, it is necessary to build a domestic system for monitoring and forecasting the world economy and its oil and gas sector.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Oil sector of the global economy in 2020: Forecasts and expected results (In Russ.), Burenie i neft', 2021, no. 1, pp. 33–39.

2. OECD Economic Outlook, 2019, V. 106, no. 2, https://doi.org/10.1787/9b89401b-en

3. OPEC monthly oil market report, URL: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

4. World economic outlook, 2020, January, URL: https://www.imf.org/ru/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020

5. IEA. Oil market report, URL: https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report

6. U.S. Energy information administration. Short-term energy outlook, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php

7. International Energy Outlook 2019. U.S. Energy information administration, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo19/

8. URL: https://ostrovrusa.ru/prognoz-tsen-na-neft#

9. Mastepanov A.M., The world at a break or a new reality: Prospects for the development of the energy industry and its oil and gas sector (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2020, no. 5, pp. 9–10.

10. Mastepanov A.M., Big cycles and “black swans” (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2020, no. 6 (148), pp. 4–19.

11. Mastepanov A.M., Coronavirus and the resulting crisis: About the prospects of the world economy and energy (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2020, no. 6, pp. 6–12.

12. Global Energy Review 2020. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions, IEA, 2020, April, 55 p., URL: https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl= %2fdownload %2fdirect %2f2995

13. OECD Economic Outlook. The World Economy on a Tightrope, 2020, June, URL: http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/

14. OECD Economic Outlook, 2020, V. 108, no. 2, URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/ 39a88ab1-en

15. World Economic Outlook Update, 2020, June, URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020; World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A long and difficult, URL:  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020

16. World Bank, 2021. Global economic prospects, Washington, DC, 2021, January, URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

17. URL: https://www.rbc.ru/society/04/01/2021/5ff35a499a79471f088165­d1?from=newsfeed

18. Kutuzova M., Kovidnyy shtorm i bychiy rynok. Spros i tseny na neft' vosstanovyatsya v 2021 g. (Coronavirus storm and bull market. Oil demand and prices will rebound in 2021.), URL: http://neftianka.ru/kovidnyj-shtorm-i-bychij-rynok-spros-i-ceny-na-neft-vosstanovyatsya-v-2021-g/

19. Davydov D., Vesnoy mirovoy rynok nefti mozhet snova provalit'sya (In the spring, the global oil market may fail again), URL: https://teknoblog.ru/2021/01/10/109660

20. URL: https://www.vazhno.ru/a/66377/20210111/rubl-ruhnet-ozvuchen-sekretnyj-kurs-dollara-na-maj/ab-intext/



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