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Choice of the strategy of an object drilling out on the basis of a probabilistic approach

UDK: УДК 622.24.001.57
Key words: variative model, geological and hydrodynamic uncertainties, ‘rationing in fact’, adjustment of the design decisions, drilling out strategy, net present value, internal rate of return
Authors: A.Yu. Sentsov, O.V. Kramar, I.Yu. Cherkasova, S.A. Timofeeva, O.V. Maslak (KogalymNIPIneft Branch of LUKOIL-Engineering LLC in Tyumen, RF, Tyumen), S.V. Arefyev (LUKOIL-Western Siberia LLL, RF, Kogalym)
The tasks of assessing and reducing risks, improving the quality of the forecast of oil production at the exploitation drilling organization at new sites are considered. A probabilistic approach to the forming of a strategy of development (drilling out) of asset is suggested. The approach supposes to use for making concrete decisions on drilling new wells in some areas of deposits not approved deterministic model, but multivariant one. Variative models take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by rationing them in fact. Forming of the strategy of the development (drilling out) the asset consists of the next basic steps: 1) object selection and allocation of the most promising sites for drilling; 2) the creation of probabilistic models and В forming of the development variants taking into account geological specialty of sites; 3) the search for the optimal variant by technological and economic criteria. Methodology is tested on the main deposit of YuV1 reservoir of North Pokachevskoye field. Based on probabilistic modeling economically efficient variant of the development of the selected site is recommended. At the same time probable variations in the geological basis are taken into account. The use of the proposed approach at the stage of drill planning allows to find the optimal way to develop the asset, to increase the net present value and internal rate of return of the project.
References
1. Konoplyanik A.A., The risk of foreign investment in the Russian energy raw
materials sectors (In Russ.), Mineral'nye resursy Rossii. Ekonomika i upravlenie,
1995, no. 3, pp. 18–22.
2. Muslimov R.Kh., Volkov Yu.A., Administration of innovative design in oil field
development at a late stage as a means to update the management
process in the industry (In Russ.), Neft'. Gaz. Novatsii, 2014, no. 4, pp. 20-25.
3. Rose P.R., Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures,
Tulsa, Oklahoma: The American Association of Petroleum Geologists,
2001, 164 p.
4. Melekhova E.I., Otsenka neopredelennosti i geologicheskikh riskov v rayone
novogo bureniya 2013-2014 gg. po aktual'noy modeli (plasty AV13-AV2,
Nivagal'skoe mestorozhdenie TPP «Pokachevneftegaz») (Assessment of uncertainties
and geological risks in the area of new drilling of 2013-2014. on the
current model (layers AV13-AB2, Nivagalskoe field of Pokachevneftegas)),
Novosibirsk: Parallel' Publ., 2013, pp. 34–38.
5. Sentsov A.Yu., Kramar O.V., Ovchinnikova E.I., Aref'ev S.V., From geological
uncertanty assessment towards strategy of a field’s part drilling (experience
of the approach application when planning drilling of AV 1-2 formations of Nivagalsky
field (In Russ.), Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i
gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2014, no. 10, pp. 50–58.
The tasks of assessing and reducing risks, improving the quality of the forecast of oil production at the exploitation drilling organization at new sites are considered. A probabilistic approach to the forming of a strategy of development (drilling out) of asset is suggested. The approach supposes to use for making concrete decisions on drilling new wells in some areas of deposits not approved deterministic model, but multivariant one. Variative models take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by rationing them in fact. Forming of the strategy of the development (drilling out) the asset consists of the next basic steps: 1) object selection and allocation of the most promising sites for drilling; 2) the creation of probabilistic models and В forming of the development variants taking into account geological specialty of sites; 3) the search for the optimal variant by technological and economic criteria. Methodology is tested on the main deposit of YuV1 reservoir of North Pokachevskoye field. Based on probabilistic modeling economically efficient variant of the development of the selected site is recommended. At the same time probable variations in the geological basis are taken into account. The use of the proposed approach at the stage of drill planning allows to find the optimal way to develop the asset, to increase the net present value and internal rate of return of the project.
References
1. Konoplyanik A.A., The risk of foreign investment in the Russian energy raw
materials sectors (In Russ.), Mineral'nye resursy Rossii. Ekonomika i upravlenie,
1995, no. 3, pp. 18–22.
2. Muslimov R.Kh., Volkov Yu.A., Administration of innovative design in oil field
development at a late stage as a means to update the management
process in the industry (In Russ.), Neft'. Gaz. Novatsii, 2014, no. 4, pp. 20-25.
3. Rose P.R., Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures,
Tulsa, Oklahoma: The American Association of Petroleum Geologists,
2001, 164 p.
4. Melekhova E.I., Otsenka neopredelennosti i geologicheskikh riskov v rayone
novogo bureniya 2013-2014 gg. po aktual'noy modeli (plasty AV13-AV2,
Nivagal'skoe mestorozhdenie TPP «Pokachevneftegaz») (Assessment of uncertainties
and geological risks in the area of new drilling of 2013-2014. on the
current model (layers AV13-AB2, Nivagalskoe field of Pokachevneftegas)),
Novosibirsk: Parallel' Publ., 2013, pp. 34–38.
5. Sentsov A.Yu., Kramar O.V., Ovchinnikova E.I., Aref'ev S.V., From geological
uncertanty assessment towards strategy of a field’s part drilling (experience
of the approach application when planning drilling of AV 1-2 formations of Nivagalsky
field (In Russ.), Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i
gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2014, no. 10, pp. 50–58.


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